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Voici LA chronique à découvrir, intitulée: La guerre contre Bitcoin. Idéal pour comprendre certains tenants et aboutissants

Voici LA chronique à découvrir, intitulée: La guerre contre Bitcoin. Idéal pour comprendre certains tenants et aboutissants… Bonne découverte!
La guerre contre Bitcoin
Bitcoin est peut-être le meilleur outil de liberté économique de cette génération, et peut-être depuis plusieurs générations. Malheureusement, Bitcoin a été furieusement étouffé par une guerre civile brutale depuis environ cinq ans maintenant; menée par des ingénieurs sociaux professionnels de certaines des entreprises les plus puissantes des médias sociaux. Leur talent dans l'art et la science de la manipulation a permis aux "Bitcoiners" de se battre largement entre eux plutôt que de chercher à créer des modèles commerciaux innovants basés sur les données qui pourraient révolutionner l'économie mondiale via Bitcoin.
À la suite de la guerre civile de Bitcoin, trois versions concurrentes de Bitcoin ont vu le jour (BTC, BCH et BitcoinSV ), mais il en est de même pour environ 3000 autres projets et jetons de « crypto-monnaie » se faisant passer pour des entreprises légitimes, souvent jusqu'à un "exit scam" presque garanti, le fait de disparaitre du jour au lendemain avec tout l'argent des utilisateurs. Le principal bienfaiteur de la guerre civile Bitcoin a été Ethereum: une cryptomonnaie qui fonctionne comme une machine à états mondiale et permet un déploiement facile de tokens et de contrats intelligents. Mais le protocole Ethereum ne peut pas évoluer, et parmi les milliers de projets lancés, seule une poignée pourrait même être présentés comme pouvant devenir des entreprises légitimes. La plupart des autres sont des stratagèmes de Ponzi ou des émissions d'actions illégales enrichissant les développeurs et escroquant les investisseurs amateurs.
C'est dans ce contexte que les défenseurs de BTC et de BCH, les porte-parole d'Ethereum et les altcoiners (nom donné pour englober toutes les autres cryptomonnaies) de tous bords s'alignent pour attaquer sans cesse le protocole Bitcoin préservé uniquement par le réseau BSV. Une industrie composée presque entièrement de criminels, de fraudes et d'arnaqueurs s'est unie contre BSV citant - et c'est là l'ironie! - une prétendue fraude et arnaque présumée qui serait l'existence même de BSV.
Nous devons nous demander pourquoi ?
Quel est le différenciateur clé de BSV?
Pourquoi tous les arnaqueurs se sont-ils unis contre lui?
Je suis fermement convaincu que pour la plupart, la motivation est la peur de la capacité de BSV à absorber l'économie mondiale et tous les autres projets «crypto» qui vont avec. Pour les autres, ou ceux qui ne comprennent pas le pouvoir du Bitcoin, ils sont entraînés dans une guerre civile et culturelle qui les dépasse. Il est essentiel de comprendre les pouvoirs en jeu et leurs implications pour Bitcoin et l'économie mondiale.
Une histoire brève de Bitcoin
Bitcoin a été lancé avec un "livre blanc" sur la liste de diffusion de cryptographie en 2008. Le pseudonyme « Satoshi Nakamoto » a déclaré une solution au problème de la double dépense. Or il s'agit là du problème de tous les systèmes de paiement électronique précédents, et c'était le seul facteur limitant l'adoption d'une monnaie digitale fonctionnelle. Mais qu'est-ce que le problème de la double dépense ? Pour faire simple, il était impossible de prouver exactement qui possédait quelles unités d'argent sur des registres distribués, de sorte que les utilisateurs ne pouvaient pas avoir confiance dans le système, et ces projets mourraient assez vite. Bitcoin a résolu ce problème avec un concept appelé la « preuve de travail ». Il pose la question: qui a utilisé le plus de puissance de calcul pour résoudre des énigmes arbitraires ? ceci afin de rendre compte de l'état du registre d'une manière qui coûte de l'argent, de sorte qu'il y ait une incitation économique à tenir un compte honnête des avoirs de chacun des participants. Ce processus est souvent appelé « exploitation minière » car les nœuds honnêtes qui maintiennent l'état du registre sont récompensés pour leur travail avec des nouveaux Bitcoins toutes les dix minutes - un peu à la même manière d'un mineur d'or qui est récompensé par de l'or en échange de son travail.
Étant donné que Bitcoin n'avait aucune valeur lors de son lancement, il était extrêmement facile à miner et également gratuit d'envoyer des tonnes de transactions. En théorie, il s'agissait d'un vecteur d'attaque par déni de service (DoS). Une attaque DoS ou DDoS se produit lorsque les nœuds d'un réseau sont inondés de plus de données qu'ils ne peuvent en gérer et qu'ils se mettent donc à planter. Sur le jeune réseau Bitcoin, un crash comme celui-ci aurait été considéré comme un échec du réseau. Pour empêcher cela, un plafond de 1 Mo de données par chaque dix minutes de transactions a été codé en dur dans le logiciel - semant la première graine de la guerre civile Bitcoin. De 2009 à 2017, cette limite de 1 Mo sur le total des transactions était l'aspect technique le plus controversé du bitcoin et le déclencheur de la plus grande guerre civile virtuelle de l'univers de la cryptomonnaie.
Pourquoi est-ce aussi important?
Une seule transaction basique Bitcoin est relativement petite du point de vue des données, donc 1 Mo toutes les dix minutes donne environ trois à sept transactions par seconde avant que le réseau ne devienne trop encombré. Satoshi Nakamoto le créateur, a plaidé pour un nombre de transactions du niveau de Visa et bien plus, ainsi que son successeur direct en tant que développeur principal du projet, Gavin Andresen. Certains des premiers Bitcoiners influents comme Mike Hearn et Jeff Garzik ont ​​également plaidé pour plus de données par bloc pour permettre à Bitcoin de se développer et de rester le meilleur système de paiement électronique. Ils étaient pour des «gros blocs» contrairement au camp des «petits blocs» qui préconisaient une permanence de la limitation de 1 Mo des blocs.
Le camp des "petits blocs" estiment que Bitcoin n'est pas un réseau de paiement, mais plutôt qu'il s'apparente davantage à une banque décentralisée conçue pour stocker des Bitcoins qui ne bougent jamais: une sorte de coffre-fort d'or numérique. Ils voulaient que la limite de taille des blocs de 1 Mo reste permanente sous les auspices de chaque personne exécutant un «nœud complet» sans avoir à payer trop d'espace sur le disque dur. Cela signifierait qu'en période de congestion, les frais de transaction deviendraient absurdement élevés, mais cela n'aurait pas d'importance car le bitcoin ne devrait pas être utilisé pour des envois sauf en grosses quantités de toute façon, selon eux. En décembre 2017 les frais de BTC ont ainsi atteint les $50 par transaction. L'autre problème est que s'il est bon marché de rejoindre la gouvernance de Bitcoin, alors le réseau est facile à attaquer par Sybil, et je dirais que BTC est régi par des sybilles à ce jour.
Le camp des "gros-blocs" estime que tout le monde sur terre devrait être en mesure d'échanger et de faire ses affaires sur Bitcoin pour des frais infimes, de l'ordre d'un centième ou millième de centime par transaction, afin d'apporter à la population mondiale la liberté monétaire, y compris aux pays les plus pauvres qui sont gardés en dehors du système actuel car considérés comme pas assez profitables pour des entreprises comme Visa.
Les "petits-blocs" pensent que tout le monde devrait être en mesure de gérer soi-même le registre mondial chez soi, mais que seules certaines personnes très riches devraient pouvoir effectuer des transactions, ce qui est le cas quand les frais sont à $50 par transaction comme en 2017.
Après des années de querelles, en 2017, Bitcoin s'est scindé en deux chaînes distinctes, et en 2018, il s'est à nouveau divisé.
Alors quelle est la différence entre ces trois versions ?
BTC est actuellement la version qui a le prix le plus élevé, avec la plus petite taille de bloc et la plus grande puissance de calcul. On peut dire que BTC à gagné la guerre médiatique. Malheureusement, il est régi par des développeurs et des sybilles qui contrôlent le consensus grâce à une utilisation intelligente de logiciels malveillants appelés «soft-fork» qui leur permet de saper les règles du Bitcoin. Ils utilisent ce pouvoir pour changer les règles des transactions en mentant aux nœuds et en leur disant de les valider quand même. Toute la culture BTC consiste à acheter du BTC afin de le conserver jusqu'à un moment dans le futur où il serait revendu à un prix exorbitant. Le but est de spéculer au maximum. Les paiements avec BTC, particulièrement les petits paiements, ou les transactions de toute nature non-monétaires, sont méprisés.
BCH est un réseau basé sur Bitcoin qui pense que les blocs devraient être à peine légèrement plus grands, mais ils ont également des développeurs en charge des règles, tout comme BTC, et ils pensent que Bitcoin devrait être utilisé uniquement pour le commerce de détail, mais rien de plus. Le réseau change de règles tous les six mois. Les transactions non commerciales sont en général méprisées. Un nouveau scindement de BCH est prévu pour novembre 2020 suite à des conflits internes et l'incapacité à avoir un système de gouvernance dans un projet où les règles changent en permanence.
BSV est la version restaurée du protocole Bitcoin original avec tous les paramètres ouverts afin que les nœuds honnêtes puissent s'engager dans un consensus conformément au livre blanc de Bitcoin - par la preuve de travail ! Le protocole est gravé dans la pierre afin que les développeurs de logiciels ne puissent pas bricoler les règles. Cela permet aux entreprises de planifier des décennies d'utilisation du réseau et d'investir en toute confiance. Il s'agit d'apporter une réelle innovation technologique au monde plutôt que de spéculer. En tant que seul réseau bitcoin totalement sans besoin d'autorisation, le commerce de toute nature est encouragé sur BSV. Tout, allant des réseaux sociaux aux expériences de science des données météorologiques ou aux tests de disponibilité du réseau, est encouragé. Paiements de détail, tokenisation, ou tout autre type de contrat intelligent est simple à déployer sans limitations. Bitcoin SV n'a aucune limite dans son protocole sauf l'esprit humain, l'innovation et l'esprit d'entreprise. Il vise également une adoption mondiale notamment par les pays pauvres afin d'apporter la liberté monétaire et l'inclusion à l'économie mondiale de ceux que les grandes entreprises actuelles comme Visa dédaignent comme pas assez profitables pour leur accorder leur services.
Et c'est la racine de la haine envers BSV.
Les "petits-blocs" ont investi toute leur réputation et leurs moyens de subsistance sur la notion que le bitcoin est incapable de s'adapter. Pendant des années, des experts présumés ont convaincu de nombreuses personnes que les limites de taille de bloc de 2 Mo, 8 Mo ou 22 Mo casseraient littéralement Bitcoin. Ils ont furieusement mis en jeux leur réputation sur ces fausses notions. Et ensuite, BSV a eu de nombreux blocs de plus de 100 Mo. En fait, il y en a même eu quelques-uns de plus de 300 Mo! prouvant que les petits-blocs se trompaient depuis le début sur les limites du réseau. Mais cette prise de conscience est une menace pour l'hégémonie de l'histoire médiatique qui a été crée sur Bitcoin. Depuis 2015, lorsque le Dr Craig Wright est apparu sur les lieux pour expliquer que le bitcoin avait en réalité ZERO limitations, il a créé un tollé massif parmi l'intelligentsia des petits-blocs. Les leaders d'opinion de l'époque étaient payés pour prendre la parole lors de conférences où ils expliquaient à tort que Bitcoin n'était rien d'autre qu'une réserve de valeur rare sans autre utilité, et surtout pas à usage des plus pauvres. Le Dr Wright parlait de l'échelle illimitée du réseau, de son exhaustivité de Turing, de l'objectif d'inclure enfin les plus pauvres dans l'économie mondiale, et d'autres notions inconcevables (à l'époque) sur Bitcoin. Sa passion et ses connaissances se sont heurtées à des calomnies et des railleries. Ils se sont concentrés sur l'attaque de son personnage au lieu de discuter de Bitcoin!
C'est devenu l'une des principales méthodes d'attaque des petits-blocs. Lorsque de gros-blocs parlent des capacités de Bitcoin, ils sont ridiculisés en tant qu'escrocs et le sujet est toujours dirigé très loin de la discussion technique, car les petits-blocs savent bien qu'ils sortiraient perdants. Ils fouillent les dossiers personnels et cherchent des moyens de faire taire les gens du camp des grands-blocs de Bitcoin par des attaques personnelles - de la même manière que les guerriers de la justice sociale s'engagent dans la culture d'annulation contre leurs ennemis politiques.
Qui est le Dr Craig Wright et que fait-il?
Craig Wright est le scientifique en chef d'une société de recherche sur Bitcoin au Royaume-Uni appelée nChain : une société de 150 à 200 informaticiens. Craig dirige l'équipe qui étudie les possibilités de Bitcoin et de ses applications dans le monde. Il est l'un des experts en criminalité numérique les plus reconnus au monde avec les certifications SANS et GIAC ainsi que les titres GSE CISSP, CISA, CISM, CCE, GCFA, GLEG, GREM et GSPA. En outre, il est un polymathe multidisciplinaire de troisième cycle: un doctorat en informatique, économie et théologie et titulaire d'une maîtrise en statistique et en droit commercial international.
En 2015, il a également été exposé par une publication conjointe de WIRED et Gizmodo en tant que Satoshi Nakamoto, le créateur de Bitcoin. Quelques jours après cette révélation, les gens qui le soutenaient ont vu leurs clés d'accès au code de Bitcoin révoquées, et de nombreux autres ont été instantanément bannis. Craig a été mis sous enquête par le bureau des impôts australien pour ce qu'il considérait être une erreur de comptabilisation probable de ses bitcoins. Les retombées ont été agressives et rapides, avec une gigantesque armée de petits-blocs, organisée sur Reddit et d'autres forums, et nouvellement financés par l'argent de la startup pro petits-blocs appelée «Blockstream». Leur message était clair: Bitcoin doit garder de petits blocs. Le Bitcoin ne peut pas évoluer et doit rester réservé aux riches, et toute personne proche de Craig Wright sera harcelée pour se conformer à une armée de comptes Twitter anonymes et sans visage.
Voici un schéma qui retrace les financements de Blockstream et révèle comment le groupe Bilderberg, la banque centrale américaine (FED) et Mastercard on pris le contrôle du réseau BTC via Blockstream afin de le soumettre à leur propre profit: https://imgur.com/eFApDVE
Au cours des années suivantes, Ira Kleiman, frère du défunt Dave Kleiman, a poursuivi Craig Wright en justice pour sa part du prétendu «Partenariat Satoshi Nakamoto», affirmant que son frère Dave était plus impliqué qu'il ne l'était réellement, et l'affaire est en cours actuellement, jusqu'à courant 2021. Ira Kleiman pense que Craig est Satoshi et il a investi une fortune incalculable dans cette attaque et a obtenu l'argent d'investisseurs extérieurs pour poursuivre sa poursuite. Il est clair que les bailleurs de fonds d'Ira pensent que Craig est également Satoshi.
Les critiques qualifient souvent la révélation publique et le procès public de Wright de ternir énormément sa réputation, mais il convient de noter que les deux sont arrivés à Wright malgré sa volonté et qu'il ne souhaitait clairement pas être pris dans l'une ou l'autre situation.
Au lieu de cela, Craig est un défenseur passionné de la vision d'un Bitcoin avec de gros blocs, appelant à la professionnalisation, à la légalisation et à l'utilisation mondiale de Bitcoin pour une utilisation à tous les niveaux du commerce. La réponse à la passion de Craig et à ses affirmations a été d'attaquer sa réputation et d'endosser Internet avec le surnom de «Faketoshi». Lorsque de simples brimades ont échoué contre le Dr Wright, des attaques ont été intensifiées pour remettre en question ses divers diplômes, des pétitions aux universités pour enquêter sur lui pour plagiat dans divers travaux, y compris des thèses de doctorat, etc. Wright a même revendiqué des menaces contre la vie des membres de sa famille et il y a plus qu'une preuve que, selon Ian Grigg, une des légendes de la cryptographie: «des gens sont morts pour Bitcoin, croyez moi, des gens sont morts».
Les attaques en cours
Cela ne peut être assez souligné: la communauté des petits-blocs est construite autour de tactiques d'ingénierie sociale professionnelles. Gregory Maxwell, co-fondateur de la société Blockstream, a été formé à la pratique de l'ingénierie sociale et l'a utilisé de manière si subversive comme un outil de propagande pendant son mandat en tant que modérateur rémunéré de Wikipedia, qu'il a finalement été démis de ses fonctions avec les journaux d'administration citant une litanie d'infractions, notamment:
«Gmaxwell s'est engagé dans la création de faux comptes en masse…» - Alhutch 00:05, 23 janvier 2006 (UTC)
«Menaces, insultes grossières, usurpations d'identité d'un administrateur», -Husnock 03:18, 25 janvier 2006 (UTC)
«Son comportement est scandaleux. Franchement, il est hors de contrôle à ce stade. Son comportement d'intimidation doit cesser.» - FearÉIREANN 19:36, 22 janvier 2006 (UTC)
«Sa liste de contributions est hors de propos. C'est du vandalisme. C'est un comportement auquel je m'attendrais d'un éditeur en furie, et franchement, c'est ce qu'est Gmaxwell.» - Splashtalk 20h00, 22 janvier 2006 (UTC)
«Prétend être un administrateur, menaçant de bloquer les personnes qui ne sont pas d'accord avec lui, fait régulièrement des attaques personnelles» - SlimVirgin (talk) 12h22, 22 janvier 2006 (UTC)
Il passe beaucoup de temps sur Reddit et d'autres forums à semer la peur sur les dangers des gros blocs, et il a été surpris en train de faire semblant d'être plusieurs comptes à la fois en train d'avoir de très longues discussions techniques sur Reddit destinées à submerger les nouveaux arrivants avec ce qui ressemble à un débat intellectuel contre une version de Bitcoin libéré de ses limites.
Qui d'autre est attaqué?
L'autre cible commune de la machine de guerre médiatique anti-BSV est Calvin Ayre: un milliardaire à la tête de l'empire du groupe Ayre. Calvin est un entrepreneur canadien et antiguais qui a lancé un incubateur Internet à Vancouver au tout début du boom Internet. Fils d'un éleveur, Ayre est surtout connu en dehors de l'économie Bitcoin pour la création et la professionnalisation de l'industrie du jeu sur Internet. Plus particulièrement, sous la marque Bodog, Ayre a aidé à moderniser les lois financières américaines obsolètes en poussant les limites dans les marchés gris qui existent où les dollars américains sont utilisés à travers les frontières pour s'engager dans un commerce juridiquement compliqué comme le jeu d'argent. Son travail dans ce domaine lui a valu une petite fortune et un passage sur la liste des «plus recherchés» du gouvernement des USA pour blanchiment d'argent. C'est un point sur lequel les petits-blocs aiment se concentrer, mais ils le sortent complètement de son contexte. Calvin a finalement plaidé coupable à une accusation mais a été le fer de lance de la modernisation des lois américaines qui existent aujourd'hui sur les marchés. Il est respecté pour son travail dans l'industrie du jeu, des médias et de la philanthropie. Calvin est le bienvenu aux États-Unis malgré la critique souvent citée selon laquelle il serait une sorte de hors-la-loi.
Calvin Ayre
Dans l'économie Bitcoin, Ayre est une figure de proue dans la gestion de nœuds Bitcoin honnêtes depuis plusieurs années sous les marques CoinGeek et TAAL, et il est un investisseur dans nChain ainsi que plusieurs startups de l'espace BSV. Bien qu'il soit probablement le plus gros investisseur à ce jour, il n'est pas le monopole que les petits-blocs laisseraient croire. Il est important de comprendre que des segments entiers de l'écosystème BSV existent complètement en dehors de son influence.
Twetch, par exemple, est une entreprise indépendante appartenant à l'écosystème BSV, célèbre pour ses attaques contre les médias sociaux centralisés qui abusent de la censure. Ils sont même connus pour se moquer des entreprises qui acceptent l'argent d'Ayre, en plaisantant que Calvin possède tout sauf Twetch. Bien sûr, ce n'est pas vrai. Un autre excellent exemple est l'investisseur / entrepreneur indépendant Jack Liu : ancien dirigeant de Circle et OKEX. Liu possède la marque de hackathons CambrianSV ainsi que des propriétés précieuses dans l'espace BSV telles que RelayX, Streamanity, Output Capital, FloatSV et Dimely.
Les autres acteurs clés sont MatterPool Mining et leur écosystème Mattercloud: une joint-venture entre des acteurs indépendants de l'écosystème BSV, avec des connexions directes aux protocoles BoostPOW et 21e8 et des relations avec des développeurs BSV indépendants.
Bien sûr, il existe également des marques précieuses financées par Ayre. Il s'agit notamment de la propriété partielle via l'investissement dans HandCash, Centi, TonicPow et Planaria Corp de Unwriter.
Une autre mesure importante à prendre en compte est la distribution de la puissance de hachage (autre nom pour la puissance de calcul du résau). Alors qu'au tout début de BSV, les entreprises appartenant à Ayre représentaient une quantité importante de hachage sur bitcoin, afin d'assurer sa survie, BSV est aujourd'hui en grande partie exploité par des mineurs concurrents de Ayre tels que Binance, F2Pool, OKEX et ViaBTC - dont aucun n'est «ami» de BSV ou d'Ayre, mais beaucoup se déclarent les ennemis. Ces mineurs soulignent bien la nature ouverte et sans permission de BSV qui permet à quiconque de participer, notamment à ses ennemis!
Ayre est un acteur important, mais en aucun cas un contrôleur de la direction de la blockchain ou des entreprises indépendantes dans l'économie BSV.
Mais pourquoi Craig poursuit-il des gens en justice ?
Tout d'abord, et c'est crucial, le procès le plus important de Craig est l'affaire Kleiman. Les autres cas existent uniquement à cause de la diffamation publique du Dr Wright. Le hashtag #CraigWrightIsAFraud circule largement, poussé en grande partie par un mélange de personnages anonymes sur Twitter. Plus particulièrement Magnus Granath AKA «Hodlonaut» a été averti qu'une accusation publique de fraude courait à son encontre. La carrière du Dr Wright est en informatique et en criminalistique numérique, donc le déclarer publiquement une fraude sans preuve cause un préjudice financier au Dr Wright dans son domaine d'expertise commerciale. Puisque «Hodlnaut» a refusé de cesser, on lui a envoyer une requête pour être vu au tribunal afin de pouvoir apporter les preuves de ses accusations. Cela a causé le célèbre podcasteur de petits-blocs Peter McCormack à mendier d'être poursuivi aussi - en augmentant la rhétorique diffamatoire contre le Dr Wright. À la demande de McCormack, il a lui aussi été attaqué en justice pour être vu au tribunal. Le Dr Wright à depuis abandonné tous ses procès pour diffamation à l'exception de celui contre McCormack qu'il souhaite continuer pour faire exemple.
Cela a aussi engendré la campagne #DelistBSV menée en grande partie par «CZ», le PDG charismatique de Binance-Exchange. Divers autres échanges comme Shapeshift et Kraken ont publié des sondages twitter demandant s'ils devaient emboîter le pas, et des petits-blocs bien organisés ont voté en masse pour retirer BSV de leurs échanges - citant la toxicité du Dr Wright pour avoir intenté des poursuites en diffamation contre Hodlonaut et McCormack. Finalement, BSV a été retiré de Binance, ShapeShift et Kraken. Il a également été noté publiquement par Coinbase et Gemini qu'ils ne soutiendraient pas cette version de bitcoin à la suite de ce drame public. Il faut noter qu'après 2 ans, Binance a retourné sa veste et est aujourd'hui devenu un des principaux mineurs de BSV.
Au fur et à mesure que les choses progressaient, le fondateur de bitcoin .com, Roger Ver, a également réalisé une vidéo publique déclarant Wright comme arnaqueur. C'était après avoir travaillé sournoisement avec les développeurs Bitcoin ABC pour coder des points de contrôle dans le logiciel ABC de Bitcoin Cash, divisant de manière permanente le réseau Bitcoin pour la deuxième et dernière fois - un acte auquel le Dr Wright s'était opposé et pour lequel Roger est également poursuivi par d'autres parties privées en Floride. Roger Ver a été averti que s'il continuait, des poursuites juridiques similaires se présenteraient à sa porte pour avoir diffamé le Dr Wright, mais il à décidé de poursuivre les accusations publiques jusqu'à ce qu'il soit également entendu devant le tribunal pour fournir une preuve de la fraude de Wright, sous peine de sanctions pour diffamation publique. Aucune preuve n'a jamais été fournit, mais le Dr Wright a depuis abandonné ses poursuites contre Roger Ver pour se concentrer sur son procès avec Kleiman et celui avec McCormack ainsi que son travail sur Bitcoin.
Et maintenant que se passe-t-il ?
Nous avons établi l'histoire du Bitcoin, de sa guerre civile, des attaques publiques contre Wright, Ayre et BSV. Au moment d'écrire ces lignes, nous pouvons revenir sur les attaques contre Thomas Lee, Tim Draper et Jimmy Wales pour avoir eu une proximité avec BSV. Malgré la pression sociale, le rapport technique Fundstrat de Lee a rendu un examen élogieux du protocole fixe et de l'évolutivité infinie de BSV. Lee et son équipe étaient heureux de prendre la parole lors des événements précédents de CoinGeek, même après le tollé public.
Pour la conférence CoinGeek 2020 à New York, McCormack, Hodlonaut, « Arthur Van Pelt » et d'autres acteurs tels que le Dan Held de Kraken et une cacophonie de trolls anonymes sur Twitter ont mis à profit leur expérience de la culture d'annulation à la bolchevique pour faire pression sur l'orateur Gary Vaynerchuk ainsi que d'autres orateurs prévus pour cette conférence, afin de les forcer à annuler leur participation. Cette attaque sociale contre BSV, Dr. Wright, Ayre et les autres entreprises qui utilisent le réseau BSV pourrait être un gigantesque cas de fraude à la consommation. Ils trompent activement les gens en leur faisant croire que le protocole fixe et l'évolutivité infinie de Bitcoin BSV sont en quelque sorte dangereux, alors qu'en fait, le protocole et le réseau sont imperméables à toutes les attaques, à l'exception de leur ingénierie sociale.
Bitcoin SV s'est développé professionnellement avec un portefeuille de brevets de protection de niveau mondial. Il est utilisé par des entreprises indépendantes afin d'apporter des innovations technologiques et possède un groupe décentralisé de nœuds honnêtes qui se font concurrence. Le réseau est fixe, sécurisé et en croissance grâce aux investissements de petites entreprises et de gestionnaires de capitaux. Les transactions sont instantanées avec des frais de 0.0002€ par transaction en moyenne, explosant tous les records de compétitivité de l'écosystème et permettant aux plus pauvres de la planète d'enfin accéder à l'économie digitale mondiale. Les mensonges sont basés sur une campagne massive de dénigrement perpétrée par les communautés d'autres cryptomonnaies qui craignent l'adoption mondiale de BSV comme outil de commerce et ce que cela signifiera pour eux. L'histoire ne sera pas gentille avec ces manipulateurs et leurs réseaux qui sont financés par les fraudes probables des échanges de crypto-monnaies off-shore, le (très probablement) frauduleux Tether Stablecoin, et l'économie des arnaques de "pump-and-dump" qui sous-tend 95% du volume de négociation de l'ensemble de l'économie cryptomonnaie actuelle.
C'est une guerre civile. Il y aura toujours des victimes, mais alors que BTC et BCH se concentrent sur les ragots et les affaires illicites, BSV veut que le monde entier soit plus libre, plus souverain et plus capable de coopérer sur le registre mondial de la vérité afin que les entrepreneurs du monde puissent s'engager à créer des entreprises ou de simples nano-services sont rendus possibles uniquement par Bitcoin. Bitcoin est un test d'intelligence. Au fil du temps, les personnes intelligentes pourront voir à travers le brouillard de distorsion de la réalité créé pour confondre les innocents et reconnaître cela pour ce que c'est, une attaque coordonnée pour tenter de supprimer une technologie qui à un potentiel unique dans l'histoire, et qui les rendrait obsolètes.

Des exemples d'applications Bitcoin que vous pouvez utiliser dès aujourd'hui ?
Les applications qui sont construites sur Bitcoin et interagissent entre elles par ce biais créent ce qu'on appelle le "Metanet". Si vous vous sentez prêt à faire le premier pas dans le futur vous êtes libres de tester les applications les plus populaires du Metanet sur https://metastore.app/apps?sort=money
Le site le plus populaire du Metanet à ce jour est Twetch, une version de twitter incensurable sur la blockchain que vous trouverez ici : bit.ly/twetchapp

_______________________
sources: inspiré de https://coingeek.com/the-war-on-bitcoin/
image : https://imgur.com/1Yb0Yle
Voici un schéma qui retrace les financements de Blockstream et révèle comment le groupe Bilderberg, la banque centrale américaine (FED) et Mastercard on pris le contrôle du réseau BTC afin de le soumettre à leur propre profit: https://imgur.com/eFApDVE
submitted by zhell_ to BitcoinSVFrance [link] [comments]

1234

[ 🎶 Thinking Cap ] This post is framed around results of cypher-based queries for the number 1234 against my custom lexicon files built up over a year of phrase inputs (mostly gleaned from newspaper headlines and their 'quoted phrases', or stream of conciousness inspired by them). There are not very many, but the few there are appear to be instructive. I have used some repetition to aid those with trouble remembering numbers. Perhaps NSFW. (For the confused: see here, here and here)
If you are brand new to this collection of scrolls, I recommend reading (as much as you can of) this before returning here, which will help to justify my particular focus below (the belt).
Did you gnow A=1?
There are 26 letters in the English-Latin Alphabet.
The basic alphabetic gematria code acknowledges that A=1, B=2, C=3, ..., Z=26 (ie. ordinal gematria).
In this basic alphabetic cypher (which is implied if I do not specify):
If you flip the numeric ordering about (ie. look in the mirror: treat 'Z' as 1, down to 'A' as 26), then...
This ("The ABC") is the name of the earliest alphabet primer textbooks for kids.
The first church primers paralleled the introduction of school textbooks known as “the ABC”
The Alphabet is a vessel for messages:
If, instead of the basic alphabetic ordinal cyphers above, we use another cypher some call Agrippa's Key, and some call the 'jewish cipher', which is based on the ancient Hebrew and Greek gematria charts, and maps that scheme to the Latin Alphabet, we can ask a catch-phrase question (written more formally than usual)
What's in a name?
Indeed:
Here we move beyond the three steps of ABC and arrive at the Door of Dalet. Behind it, if we have the write keys, we might discover...
The results of...
Itself the result of...
... of the Masters of the Ages.
Or not.
Many folks shun numbers:
  • "Obnoxious" = 1234 trigonal
  • ... ("number" = 73 = "crazy" ... but "perfect" = "count" = 73)
  • "The Great Learning" = 1234 trigonal
  • ... "Great Knowledge" = 1234 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • ... ( "Great Knowledge" = 449 primes (*) )
  • ... ( .. ... "Mental Contact" = 449 primes )
  • ... ( .. .. "Population" = 449 primes )
  • "Silence is Golden" = 449 primes (ie. Hush in the Library)
  • "Great Knowledge" = 1234 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • ... "Forbidden Word" = 1234 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • ... .. .. ( "Silence is Golden" = 449 primes )
  • "My Call of Duty" = 1234 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • ... "Great Knowledge" = 1234 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • .. ... .. "What is in a name?" = 1234 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • "Silent Warrior" = 1234 english-extended
  • ... ( "Rain" = 322 trigonal ) ( "Number" = 73 alphabetic; "Jake" = "Bard" = 73 primes )
  • ... ( .. "Counting" = 322 trigonal ) ( "Count" = 73 = "Perfect" = "Number" )
  • ... ( .. "To Know" = 322 trigonal ) ( "The Mind" = 73 = "Count" = "Number" )
  • ... ( .. "The Proof" = 322 trigonal )
  • ... ( .. .. "Final Proof" = 322 jewish-latin-agrippa )
Genesis 3:22 (KJV Bible)
And the Lord God said, Behold, the man is become as one of us, to know good and evil: and now, lest he put forth his hand, and take also of the tree of life, and eat, and live for ever:
  • "To Know" = 322 primes
  • "A Magic Number" = 322 primes
  • .. .. ... "Magician" = 322 trigonal
Make it ...
  • "Rain" = 322 trigonal
... for the ...
  • "Girl" = 322 trigonal
Thor and Jane meet again: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0HzpZAgAwY
  • "Full Name" = 322 jewish-latin-agrippa (ie. Count it! ... but you are fool to reveal it)
  • ... .. .. ( "What is in a name?" = 1234 jewish-latin-agrippa )
  • .. .. ... ( ... https://forgottenrealms.fandom.com/wiki/True_name )
  • . .. ... "Counting" = 322 primes
  • ... .. "Count" = 393 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • .. . "Accurate" = 393 primes
  • . "Accountancy" = 393 primes
  • "Counting" = 322 primes
  • "Full Name" = 322 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • ... ( "A Magic Number" = 322 primes )
  • "What is in a name?" = 1234 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • ... "Great Knowledge" = 1234 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • ... .. .. "The Spells of Eden" = 1234 trigonal
The Fruit of the Tree of Knowledge...
  • "Great Knowledge" = 449 primes
  • "Sex Education" = 449 primes
  • ... ( building "Population" = 449 primes )
...And they knew they were naked (ie. eyes opened):
  • "Shame On You" = 1234 trigonal
  • ... "The First Day" = 1234 trigonal
  • ... .. .. "The Spells of Eden" = 1234 trigonal
  • "Sex Education" = 1337 english-extended (ie. Elite codes)
  • "The Spells of Eden" = 1234 trigonal
  • ... "Great Knowledge" = 1234 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • ... .. .. "The Great Learning" = 1234 trigonal
  • .. .. ... "A Great Work" = 1234 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • ... "Speak Loud and Clear" = 1234 trigonal
  • ... .. "Water out!" = 1234 trigonal (ie. 'The Number' ~= 'Pregnant' ~= 'A Baby')
  • ... .. .. "The Spells of Eden" = 1234 trigonal (ie. spell-casting -> spillage -> spoil it)
Serpents, and Tower of Babylon:
  • "What is in a name?" = 1234 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • ... "The Unpatchable Code" = 1234 trigonal (DNA code; written language, (relatively) hard to change)
  • ... .. .. "The Spells of Eden" = 1234 trigonal
  • .. .. ... "The One Source" = 1234 trigonal
  • .. .. ... .. "The Duration of One Year" = 1234 jewish-latin-agripa
  • ... .. .. ... .. "The Source" = 365 primes (ie. days in a year, solar orbit)
ie. Matrix Code - Mother Code Pregnancy Procedure and Cascading Responsibility.
  • "My little Pony" = 1234 jewish-latin-agrippa
If you're lucky:
  • "Birth of Twins" = 1234 english-extended
ie. quantum-entanglement: you cannot give birth to your first alphabetic Son, a strong boy named Aleph, and deny he is '1'. You cannot have your second child, a beautiful maiden, Beth, and deny she is '2'.
Animals on the ark 2 by 2. You cannot order the alphabet, and deny the letters have ordinal indexes (ie. numbers associated with them - significant others)
  • "Boat" = 123 primes
To travel down...
  • "Denial" = 123 primes ...is as easy as ABC.
Again, many folks shun numbers:
Obstetrics is the field of study concentrated on pregnancy, childbirth, and the postpartum period. As a medical specialty, obstetrics is combined with gynaecology under the discipline known as obstetrics and gynecology (OB/GYN) which is a surgical field.
  • "Obnoxious" = 1234 trigonal
  • ... "The Number" = 333 primes
  • ... "Unspeakable" = 333 primes
  • ... "The Unspeakable Number" = 666 primes
  • .
  • "Counting" = 322 primes
  • "Magician" = 322 trigonal
  • ... "Magician" = 156 primes
  • ... "Apple" = 156 primes
  • ... ( the 156th prime number is 911 )
  • ... ( ... "Divine Feminine" = 911 jewish-latin-agrippa )
  • ... ( ... "She is a Beauty" = 911 jewish-latin-agrippa )
  • ... ( ... "Sexy Girl" = 911 jewish-latin-agrippa )
  • ... ( "The Last Proof of Life After Death" = 911 primes )
I have a spell-matching feature that can cross-match multiple cypher results and return the 'closest frequency matches' of all the spells I've ever entered into my gematria tools. At the time of writing the lexicon file is half a megabyte in size (plain text) and contains 37,694 words and phrases.
When I ask for the spellings that most closely match: "live forever", I get the following three results as top matches:
  • 'white liquid', 'into the girl', and 'the dilution' (with 8+ cypher matches)
There are a lot of flowery symbolic or metaphorical phrases that it could have returned, but it seems the Heptapods are rather blunt.
Again:
  • "Divine Feminine" = 911 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • ... .. "Sexy Girl" = 911 jewish-latin-agrippa
From...
Revelation 9:11 King James Version (KJV):
And they had a king [41] over them, which is the angel of the bottomless pit, whose name in the Hebrew tongue is Abaddon [41] , but in the Greek tongue hath his name Apollyon.
This is perhaps a dual - the Abaddon is both Father Beast (and Lord of the Harem, perhaps, given the plural 'them') and the Beastly Progeny (ie. King and Prince):
  • "Pregnant" = 333 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • "The Temple" = 333 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • ... "A Baby" = 333 trigonal
The angelic little baby, retrieved from the bottomless pit, is the apple of mommy and daddy's eyes (even though it is very naughty, ruling over their lives for many years after his or her noxious retrieval from the Underworld).
"I wonder why?" = 474 primes ( "Accountancy" = 393 primes )
  • "Numerology" = 474 primes
  • "Great Pattern" = 474 primes
  • "Object of Lust" = 474 primes ( "Deny Nature" = 419 primes )
  • "The Devil, Woman" = 474 primes (ie. Beauty and the Beast)
  • .
  • ... "The Number" = 333 primes
  • ... .. .. "A Baby" = 333 trigonal
  • "The Great Emergence" = 474 primes
  • "Population" = 449 primes
  • ... "Sex Education" = 449 primes
  • .. .. .. "Surveillance" = 449 primes
  • ("A Pornographic" = 616 englist-extended [ie. "Number" = 616 trigonal ] )
  • ("Pornographica" = 616 eng-ext [ie. "Perfect Number" = 616 jewish-latin-agrippa ] )
  • ... ("The Law" = 616 trigonal )
  • ... ("Garden of Eden" = 616 trigonal )
  • .
  • "To Know" = 322 primes
You cannot unsee it:
  • "Girl" = 322 trigonal <---- pornographic numeric hieroglyph
To each there own:
  • "Tradition" = 393 jewish-latin-agripa
  • "The Perfect Woman" = 1,393 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • "Tradition" = 393 jewish-latin-agripa
  • ... "Count" = 393 jewish-latin-agripa
  • .. .. ... "Accountancy" = 393 primes
Occult Alphabet = English Alphabet = Statistics
  • "Figures Reveal..." = 1234 trigonal
  • .... "Liberal Party" = 1234 trigonal
  • Q: .. "What Rules?" = 1234 english-extendedd
  • A: .. "Just Sign Here"* = 1234 jewish-latin-agrippa
The closest multi-cypher spectrum match against dictionary files (as described here), to the spell "One Thing" is:
  • "enduring" (with 9+ matches)
  • "Tradition" = 393 jewish-latin-agripa
  • ... "Survive" = 393 primes
  • ... .. .."Greyhound race" = 1234 trigonal
  • .. .. ... ... "The Rat Race" = 314 primes (ie. pi; commute in circles)
  • "Great Place" = 1234 square
Viva Las Vegas (ie. V.L.V ):
777 (ie. to win at slots):
  • "A Triple-Seven" = 1234 trigonal | 2,322 squares
The Boeing 777 is a premiere passenger aircraft.
The Boeing 787 is called the Dreamliner (ie "The Call" = 787 squares ... of Morpheus)
The Boeing 747 is Old Faithful, the Jumbo Jet of Time
Air Force One is a 747
  • "Air Force" = 223 primes
  • "Winds" = 223 primes
  • "Goddess" = 223 primes
  • ... "The Law" = 223 primes
  • ... "Air Force" = 223 primes
  • "Winds" = 223 primes
  • .
  • "The Law" = "Goddess" = 223 primes
She steps on "The Scale" = 223 primes ...
...and hopes she is ...
  • "Weightless" = 1234 jewish-latin-agrippa
From an old Alphabet Primer:
... He that ne'er learns his ABC,
... For ever will a Blockhead be.
... But he that learns these Letters fair,
... Shall have a Coach to take the Air.
Are you ready, Icarus?
  • "This is the deal" = 139 = "Occult Alphabet"
  • ... "Competition" = 139 = "Pyramid scheme" = "Ancient Egypt"
Mirror Mirror, upon the wall, who is the Pharaoh over all?
Extra credit:
Read about the taming of Enkidu, in the myth of Gilgamesh:
  • "The Spells of Eden" = 1234 trigonal
  • "Great Knowledge" = 1234 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • ... "Great Knowledge" = 449 primes
  • ... "Sex Education" = 449 primes | 1337 english-extended
  • ... .. .. "Prostitute" = 1234 english-extended
  • .. .. ... .. "Carnival Row" = 1234 english-extended
  • ... .. .. "Prostitute" = 1234 english-extended
  • .. .. ... ... "Presidential Golf Course" = 1234 english-extended
  • "One, Two, Three, and Four" = 227 basic alphabetic (the 'and' was for ... metrical reasons.)
  • ... ( "The Emergence" = 722 trigonal ... ie. pi and reverse pi; circles)
Q: ?
  • "A: The Emergence" = 314 primes (ie. classic Amorican pi)
  • "A: The Emergence" = 1337 squares (ie. "sex education" = 1337 english-extended)
  • "The Alphabetical Epidemic" = 1234 trigonal
  • ... "Not entirely true(?)" = 1234 jewish-latin-agrippa
Enregisterment is often partially, rather than completely, true, sort of like an accent viewed through a funhouse mirror.
I was triggered to made this post due to various recent media 'events', this 'crazy' 'news item' the final straw that broke the gimel's black (I link to old reddit theme because it is objectively better ):
Also, see recent threads:
Relevant numbers & links:
Also, perhaps relevant pings:
Disclaimer:
You might have noticed the game I've long played with the dots used for spacing and indenting lists of spells. They usually follow the pattern of:
  • ... (ie. 3, trinity, the Beatrice of the Matrix Code)
  • ... .. (ie. 32, life, Eve)
  • ... ... (ie. 33, magic, name, a life)
  • . .. ... (ie. 123, alphabetic codes, the ABC, initation)
  • ... .. . (ie. 321, countdown to church society)
  • ... .. .. (ie. 322, to know, the proof is counting)
  • .. .. ... (ie. 223, the law, chapter 1, the scale, goddess, Lucifer, the moon)
  • .. ... .. (ie. 232, scary, number, Satan)
  • ... .. ... (ie. 323, Lucifer, 1 Goddess)
  • ... .. .. ... (ie. 3223, the upward spiral, ascending the tower of babylon)
Sometimes the layout is thematically tied to the associated text.
  • . "Scary" = 232 primes
  • .. "Number" = 232 primes
  • ... "Tell All" = 232 primes
Wiki Index: https://old.reddit.com/GeometersOfHistory/wiki/index
.
EDIT:
Chinese researcher accused of trying to smuggle vials of ‘biological material’ out of US hidden in a sock
Sweeping ban on semiautomatic weapons takes effect in New Zealand
  • "The Semiautomatic Rifle" = 232 basic alphabetic
  • ... "Bullet" = 232 primes
  • ... "Scary" = 232 primes
  • ... .. .. "Number" = 232 primes
  • ... "Scary" = 232 primes
  • ... .. .. "Satan" = 232 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • .
  • "Semiautomatic Rifles" = 1776 trigonal
  • .
  • "The Semiautomatic Rifle" = 232 basic alphabetic
  • ... "Bullet" = 232 primes
  • ... "Number" = 232 primes
Bullet News Bulletsin Bullet points Bullet Bull ET Extraterrestrial Bull Bull God
  • "The Bull God" = 322 primes
.
EDIT: - moments later - :
https://old.reddit.com/occult/comments/eee131/does_anyone_know_what_this_symbol_represents_its/
Does anyone know what this symbol represents, it's familiar to me and puts of a very unique energy and I cannot place it
  • "unique energy" = 322 baconis | 522 primes ("the prime number" = 522 primes)
  • "(a) very unique energy" = 232 basic alphabetic | 2,247 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • ... "very unique energy" = 2023 trigonal (ie. 223 with zephyr)
  • "the very unique energy" = 264 basic alphabetic ("Source" = 264 primes)
The golden ratio is 1.61(8...)
  • ... "unique energy" = 161 basic alphabetic
  • ... "unique energy" = 1601 english-extended
  • ... "unique energy" = 1061 jewish-latin-agrippa
  • ... .. "energizer" = 1061 english-extended
  • ... .. .. "unique energy" = 161 basic alphabetic | 322 baconis
  • .. .. ... "undercurrent" = 161 basic alphabetic | 322 baconis
  • .. .. ... "song of creation" = 161 basic alphabetic | 322 baconis
https://old.reddit.com/GeometersOfHistory/comments/cyr1nq/gematria_of_161_and_322/
EDIT - again, next day (remembering that 'president' ~= 'count' ~= 'accountancy'):
I wrote here, a few days ago:
These are things we can imagine Alphabet Sages might desire to encode and honour - as much for a mnemonic purpose, as for teaching purposes, or for archiving [...] knowledge [...] or purely for the sake of esoterica itself (ie. wizard just likes math, or architecture, and thus honours math and arches, secretely in words using basic algebra and references to certain idioms and golden numbers. Wizard works for King, shows him tricks. King decrees new Bible edition, and new Dictionary version).
Today:
https://www.reddit.com/worldnews/comments/eemt1d/china_orders_christians_to_rewrite_the_bible_fo
China orders Christians to rewrite the Bible for the era of President Xi
China orders Christians to rewrite the Bible for the era of President Xi
  • "Right the Bible" = 369 primes
  • "The Alphabet Code" = 369 primes
  • "Ritual Code" = 1,666 squares
  • "Aright the Bible" = 1,666 squares
  • "The Bible: 1 Right" = 1,666 squares
EDIT - next day again (Christmas Eve) -- re: bullets (first edit above)
https://games.slashdot.org/story/19/12/23/2042253/how-do-bullets-work-in-video-games
How Do Bullets Work in Video Games?
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/12/lessons-from-scorching-hot-weirdo-planets/
Q&A(stronony) —
Lessons from scorching hot weirdo-planets
The first kind of exoplanet found, Hot Jupiters still perplex and captivate
from The Comte De Gabalis, discourse 1: https://www.sacred-texts.com/eso/cdg/cdg04.htm
He found me to be of a tractable, inquiring, and fearless disposition. A dash of melancholy is lacking in me, else I would make all, who are inclined to blame the Comte de GABALIS for having concealed nothing from me, confess that I was a not unfit subject for the Occult Sciences. One cannot make great progress in them, it is true, without melancholy; but the little that I possess in no wise disheartened him. You have, he told me a hundred times, Saturn in an angle, in his own house, and retrograde; some day you cannot. fail to be as melancholy as a Sage ought to be; for the wisest of all men, as we learn in the Cabala, had like you Jupiter in the Ascendant, nevertheless so powerful was the influence of his Saturn, though far weaker than yours, that one cannot find proof of his having laughed a single time in all his life. The Amateurs must, therefore, find fault with my Saturn and not with the Comte de GABALIS, if I prefer to divulge their secrets rather than to practise them.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/12/optical-quantum-computer-goes-big-in-new-quest-for-quantum-supremacy/
Photons are (almost) supreme —
Why I dislike what “quantum supremacy” is doing to computing research
  • "Photonics" = 119 | 47 reduced (ie. Orthodox, Foundation, Master Plan)
  • "Photonics" = 968 trigonal
  • "A+ Photonics" = 969 trigona (ie. Matrix Code)
Q: Light particles?
"A: Bits of Light" = 393 primes (ie. Bits of a Light )
submitted by Orpherischt to GeometersOfHistory [link] [comments]

Want to start fresh after the crypto crash? Here is a comprehensive guide on how to invest and prosper over the long term.

Well its happened, the crypto market just experienced the worst crash since 2014, the bubble has burst. The idiocy of newbies FOMO-ing into anything with low nominal value lead to endless twitter timelines like this, and now nobody has any idea where the market settles. What do you do now?
In the following weeks it will be a good time to rethink your investment approach and how you arrive at your decisions. Just buying whatever is shilled on Twitter or Reddit and jumping from one crypto to another isn't going to work like it did these last two months.
The good news is that we're finally back closer and closer to our long term moving average which is much more healthy for entrants, the bad news is that the fear might continue compounding if outstanding issues are not dealt with. Tether is the big concern for me personally for reasons I've stated many times, but some relief in the short term may come if the SEC and CFTC meeting on February 6th goes well. Nobody really knows where the bottom is but I think we're now past the "irrational exhuberance" stage and we're entering a period of more serious inspection where cryptos will actually have to prove themselves as useful. I suspect hype artists like CryptoNick and John McAfee will fall out of favor.
But perhaps most importantly use this as a learning experience, don't try to point fingers now. The type of dumb behavior that people were engaging in that was rewarded in a bull market (chasing pumps, going all in on a shillcoin, following hype..etc) could only ever lead to what we are experiencing now. Just like so many people jumped on the crypto bandwagon during the bull run, they will just as quickly jump on whatever bandwagon is to be used to blame for the deflation of the bubble. Nobody who pumped money into garbage without any use case will accept that they themselves with their own investing behavior were the real reason for the gross overvaluation of most cryptocurrencies, and the inevitable crash.
So if you're looking for a fresh start after the massacre (or just want to get in now), here is a guide:

Part A: Making a Investment Strategy

This is your money, put some effort into investing it with an actual strategy. Some simple yet essential advice that should apply to everyone, regardless of individual strategy:
  1. Slow down and research each crypto that you're buying for at least a week.
  2. Don't buy something just because it has risen.
  3. Don't exit a position just because it has declined.
  4. Invest only as much as you can afford to lose.
  5. Prepare enter and exit strategies in advance.
First take some time to think about your ROI target, set your hold periods for each position and how much you are actually ready to risk losing.
ROI targets
A lot of young investors who are in crypto have unrealistic expectations about returns and risk. A lot of them have never invested in any other type of financial asset, and hence many seem to consider a 5-10% ROI in a month to be unexciting.
But its important to temper your hype and realize why we had this exponential growth in the last year and how unlikely it is that we see 10x returns in the next year. What we saw recently was Greater Fool Theory in action. Those unexciting returns of 5-10% a month are much more of the norm, and much more healthy for an alternative investment class.
You can think about setting a target in terms of the market ROI over a relevant holding period and then add or decrease based on your own risk profile.
Example: Calculating a 2 year ROI target
Lets say you want to hold for 2 years now, how could you set a realistic target to strive for? You could look at a historical 2 year return as a base, preferably during a period similar to what we're facing now. Now that we had a major correction, I think we can look at the two year period starting in 2015 after we had the 2014 crash. To calculate a 2 year CAGR starting in 2015:
Year Total Crypto Market Cap
Jan 1, 2015: $5.5 billion
Jan 1, 2017: $18 billion
Compounded annual growth return (CAGR): [(18/5.5)1/2]-1 = 81%
This annual return rate of 81% comes out to about 4.9% compounded monthly. This may not sound exciting to the lambo moon crowd, but it will keep you grounded in reality. You can aim for a higher return (say 2x of that 81% rate) if you choose to take on more risky propositions. I can't tell you what return target you should set for yourself, but just make sure its not depended on you needing to achieve continual near vertical parabolic price action in small cap shillcoins because that isn't sustainable.
Once you have a target you can construct your risk profile (low risk vs. high risk category coins) in your portfolio based on your target.
Risk Management
Everything you buy in crypto is risky, but it still helps to think of these 3 risk categories:
How much risk should you take on? That depends on your own life situation for one, but also it should be proportional to how much expertise you have in both financial analysis and technology.
The general starting point I would recommend is:
Some more core principles on risk management to consider:
You can think of each crypto having a risk factor that is the summation of the general crypto market risk (Rm), but also its own inherent risk specific to its own goals (Ri).
Rt = Rm +Ri
The market risk is something you cannot avoid, it is essentially the risk that is carried by the entire market over things like regulations. What you can minimize though the Ri, the specific risks with your crypto. That will depend on the team composition, geographic risks (for example Chinese coins like NEO carry regulatory risks specific to China), competition within the space and likelihood of adoption and other factors, which I'll describe in Part 2: Crypto Picking Methodology.
Portfolio Allocation
Along with thinking about your portfolio in terms of risk categories described above, I really find it helpful to think about the segments you are in. OnChainFX has some segment categorization but I generally like to bring it down to:
Think about your "Circle of Competence", your body of knowledge that allows you to evaluate an investment. Your ability to properly judge risk and potential is going to largely correlated to your understanding of the subject matter. If you don't know anything about how supply chains functions, how can you competently judge whether VeChain or WaltonChain will achieve adoption? If you don't understand anything about the tech when you read the Cardano paper, are you really able to determine how likely it is to be adopted?
Consider the historic correlations between your holdings. Generally when Bitcoin pumps, altcoins dump but at what rate depends on the coin. When Bitcoin goes sideways we tend to see pumping in altcoins, while when Bitcoin goes down, everything goes down.
You should diversify but really shouldn't be in much more than around 12 cryptos, because you simply don't have enough competency to accurately access the risk across every segment and for every type of crypto you come across. If you have over 20 different cryptos in your portfolio you should probably think about consolidating to a few sectors you understand well.

Part B: Crypto Picking Methodology (Due Dilligence)

Do you struggle on how to fundamentally analyze cryptocurrencies? Here is a 3-step methodology to follow to perform your due dilligence:

Step 1: Filtering and Research

There is so much out there that you can get overwhelmed. The best way to start is to think back to your own portfolio allocation strategy and what you would like to get more off. For example in my view enterprise-focused blockchain solutions will be important in the next few years, and so I look to create a list of various cryptos that are in that segment.
Upfolio has brief descriptions of the top 100 cryptos and is filterable by categories, for example you can click the "Enterprise" category and you have a neat list of VEN, FCT, WTC...etc.
Once you have a list of potential candidates, its time to read about them:
  • Critically evaluate the website. If it's a cocktail of nonsensical buzzwords, if its unprofessional and poorly made, stay away. Always look for a roadmap, compare to what was actually delivered so far. Always check the team, try to find them on LinkedIn and what they did in the past.
  • Read the whitepaper or business development plan. You should fully understand how this crypto functions and how its trying to create value. If there is no use case or if the use case does not require or benefit from a blockchain, move on.
  • Check the blockchain explorer. How is the token distribution across accounts? Are the big accounts selling? Try to figure out who the whales are (not always easy!) and what the foundation/founder account is based on the initial allocation.
  • Look at the Github repos, does it look empty or is there plenty of activity?
  • Search out the subreddit and look at a few Medium or Steem blogs about the coin. How "shilly" is the community, and how much engagement is there between developer and the community?
  • I would also go through the BitcoinTalk thread and Twitter mentions, judge both the length and quality of the discussion.
You can actually filter out a lot of scams and bad investments by simply keeping your eye out on the following red flags:
  • allocations that give way too much to the founder
  • guaranteed promises of returns (Bitcooonnneeeect!)
  • vague whitepapers filled with buzzwords
  • vague timelines and no clear use case
  • Github with no useful code and sparse activity
  • a team that is difficult to find information on

Step 2: Passing a potential pick through a checklist

Once you feel fairly confident that a pick is worth analyzing further, run them through a standardized checklist of questions. This is one I use, you can add other questions yourself:
Crypto Analysis Checklist
What is the problem or transactional inefficiency the coin is trying to solve?
What is the Dev Team like? What is their track record? How are they funded, organized?
How big is the market they're targeting?
Who is their competition and what does it do better?
What is the roadmap they created and how well have they kept to it?
What current product exists?
How does the token/coin actually derive value for the holder? Is there a staking mechanism or is it transactional?
Is there any new tech, and is it informational or governance based?
Can it be easily copied?
What are the weaknesses or problems with this crypto?
The last question is the most important.
This is where the riskiness of your crypto is evaluated, the Ri I talked about above. Here you should be able to accurate place the crypto into one of the three risk categories. I also like to run through this checklist of blockchain benefits and consider which specific properties of the blockchain are being used by the specific crypto to provide some increased utility over the current transactional method:
Benefits of Cryptocurrency
Decentralization - no need for a third party to agree or validate transactions.
Transparency and trust - As blockchain are shared, everyone can see what transactions occur. Useful for something like an online casino.
Immutability - It is extremely difficult to change a transaction once its been put onto a blockchain
Distributed availability - The system is spread on thousands of nodes on a P2P network, so its difficult to take the system down.
Security - cryptographically secured transactions provide integrity
Simplification and consolidation - a blockchain can serve as a shared ledger in industries where multiple entities previously kept their own data sources
Quicker Settlement - In the financial industry when we're dealing with post-trade settlement, a blockchain can drastically increase the speed of verification
Cost - in some cases avoiding a third party verification would drastically reduce costs.

Step 3: Create a valuation model

You don't need to get into full modeling or have a financial background. Even a simple model that just tries to derive a valuation through relative terms will put you above most crypto investors. Some simple valuation methods that anyone can do:
Probablistic Scenario Valuation
This is all about thinking of scenarios and probability, a helpful exercise in itself. For example: Bill Miller, a prominent value investor, wrote a probabilistic valuation case for Bitcoin in 2015. He looked at two possible scenarios for probabalistic valuation:
  1. becoming a store-of-value equal to gold (a $6.4 trillion value), with a .25% probability of occurring
  2. replacing payment processors like VISA, MasterCard, etc. (a $350 million dollar value) with a 2.5% probability
Combining those scenarios would give you the total expected market cap: (0.25% x 6.4 trillion) + (2.5% x 350 million). Divide this by the outstanding supply and you have your valuation.
Metcalfe's Law
Metcalfe's Law which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). So you can compare various currencies based on their market cap and square of active users or traffic. We can alter this to crypto by thinking about it in terms of both users and transactions:
For example, compare the Coinbase pairs:
Metric Bitoin Ethereum Litecoin
Market Cap $152 Billion $93 Billion $7.3 Billion
Daily Transactions (last 24hrs) 249,851 1,051,427 70,397
Active Addresses (Peak 1Yr) 1,132,000 1,035,000 514,000
Metcalfe Ratio (Transactions Based) 2.43 0.08 1.47
Metcalfe Ratio (Address Based) 0.12 0.09 0.03
Generally the higher the ratio, the higher the valuation given for each address/transaction.
Market Cap to Industry comparisons
Another easy one is simply looking at the total market for the industry that the coin is supposedly targeting and comparing it to the market cap of the coin. Think of the market cap not only with circulating supply like its shown on CMC but including total supply. For example the total supply for Dentacoin is 1,841,395,638,392, and when multiplied by its price in early January we get a market cap that is actually higher than the entire industry it aims to disrupt: Dentistry.
More complex valuation models
If you would like to get into more fleshed out models with Excel, I highly recommend Chris Burniske's blog about using Quantity Theory of Money to build an equivalent of a DCF analysis for crypto.
Here is an Excel file example of OMG done by Nodar Janashia using Chris' model .
You should create multiple scenarios with multiple assumptions, both positive and negative. Have a base scenario and then moderately optimistic/pessimistic and highly optimistic/pessimistic scenario.
Personally I like to see at least a 50% upward potential before investing from my moderately pessimistic scenario, but you can set your own safety margin.
The real beneficial thing about modelling isn't even the price or valuation comparisons it spits out, but that it forces you to think about why the coin has value and what your own assumption about the future are. For example the discount rate you apply to the net present utility formula drastically affects the valuation, and it reflects your own assumptions of how risky the crypto is. What exactly would be a reasonable discount rate? What about the digital economy you are assuming for the coin, what levers affects its size and adoption and how likely are your assumptions to come true? You'll be a drastically more intelligent investor if you think about the fundamental variables that give your coin the market cap you think it should hold.

Summing it up

The time for lambo psychosis is over. But that's no reason to feel down, this is a new day and what many were waiting for. I've put together in one place here how to construct a portfolio allocation (taking into consideration risk and return targets), and how to go through a systematic crypto picking method. I'm won't tell you what to buy, you should always decide that for yourself and DYOR. But as long as you follow a rational and thorough methodology (feel free to modify anything I said above to suit your own needs) you will feel pretty good about your investments, even in times like these.
Edit: Also get a crypto prediction ferret. You won't regret it.
submitted by arsonbunny to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Vechain in the last 30 Days: Apotheosis, Blockchain X, BMW, University partnership, DApp ecosystem, BitOcean ICO, Carbon banking, Live use cases, Early adopter rewards and more

This post is for those who are new to Cryptocurrency or want to find out more about VeChain. The text "VeChain" has been banned in this subreddit for the last 30 days. For more details about the ban itself, please visit this cryptocurrencymeta post. Changes have been made and official channels of communications have been opened up to prevent this from happening in the future.
All feedback is welcome, and all discussion is encouraged, but please no moon-posting, ridiculous price speculation or baseless FUD. Looking forward to answering any questions you guys have :) VeChain Foundation COO Kevin Feng is holding a Business AMA with Boxmining today, so new information is coming very soon.

TL:DR.

Updates from the last 30 days

It's been a big month for VeChain as they have continued to work and share with the community. Here are the updates from their Official Medium channel and Reddit Rebrand Post

New website - https://www.vechain.org/

It has loads of useful information and a well produced introduction video. I would highly recommend reading through the website to get an idea of the scope of what VeChainThor is trying to accomplish.
"We are controlled by the few, the powerful and the greedy. We should be free. Free to choose, to trade, to create. It is time for a new world, a world founded on safety and security. A world where everything you do creates power, power for all. And you, you will decide the shape of this world. The power to change the future, is in your hands. VeChain." VeChain Introduction Video

What is Blockchain X?

Blockchain X is a global enterprise level public blockchain platform. VeChainThor is referring to their network/protocol as Blockchain X, to differentiate it from Bitcoin (Blockchain 1.0) and Ethereum (Blockchain 2.0 = Blockchain 1.0 + Smart Contracts).

Blockchain X = Blockchain 2.0 + IoT + AI + VET/VeThor = A living digital ecosystem

  • Blockchain = structure - bones, muscle etc (immutable trustworthy network)
  • IoT = senses - touch, vision, taste, smell, sound (collect real world information from RFID/NFC/QR etc.)
  • VET/VeThor = bone marrow/blood - generate blood & circulate (value transfer on the network)
  • AI = brain - information synthesis (automation of network with deep learning)

VeChainThor: the top candidate for enterprise and government level adoption of Blockchain

VeChainThor has an extremely strong development plan geared towards enterprise and government level adoption. If successful in their execution, I see VeChain being the leading cryptoasset comparable to Ethereum in size. The reasons I believe they will succeed are due to their ecosystem development, innovative governance model, robust economic model and strong strategic partnerships. The evidence of their success is snowballing with each new enterprise level partner and client.

DApps & Ecosystem development

The infrastructure layer has adoption in mind at the very core. Governments and enterprises will prioritise safety and security before venturing into blockchain adoption. (Mentioned in the introduction video.) The core DApps, VeVID (Verified identity, KYC/AML), VeVOT (Voting, Governance tool) and VeSCC (Smart Contract Certification, Regulatory compliance) provide the safety and security that governments and enterprises will demand. Blockchain X will have built-in KYC/AML, Governance and Regulation compliance. This sets it apart from other protocols and ICO platforms.

Governance model

The governance model is a balanced mix of decentralisation and centralisation. With problems such as Bitcoin's scaling debate, it appears that a purely decentralised governance structure may be inefficient. VeChain will use a new model of a decentralised system through centralised channels. The final decisions will be made in a decentralised democratic process through VeVOT by stakeholders with voting authority. I believe this model will be more widely adopted as it retains some of the efficient centralised channels that enterprise & government are familiar with, while still giving overall control to the network participants via a democratic voting system.

Economic model

The two-token economic model splits the value in the network into VET and VeThor. VET's primary function is to generate VeThor. VeThor represents the underlying costs of using the VeChainThor blockchain. All smart contract execution and transactions will require payment with VeThor. Through the dynamic rate of VeThor generation, the fiat value of VeThor can be kept relatively stable. For example, if the VeThor price was too high due to an increase in enterprise demand, the VeThor generation rate can be increased, which increases supply, and brings the price back down. The opposite is also true if the VeThor price is too low. The way I see VET is a store of value, a representation of ownership of part of the network and the right to use the network. Whereas VeThor is the perfect medium of exchange and a pure utility token. By using a two-token system, VeThor can have a stable fiat value over a long period of time. A company will be able to calculate how much VeThor will be needed for a consistent fiat value year after year and will be able to budget for this. This is extremely useful for enterprise and government level adoption since it removes the inherent price volatility from a nascent market like crypto.
VeChain also has a Node system, whereby holding VET generates additional rewards. Nodes of different levels will generate up to 200% additional VeThor compared to the base rate. This encourages long term staking in the network and decreases volatility. See the Apotheosis Part II article and X Series Node article for more information. A portion of VET supply will be locked up when nodes activate. Long term VET holders will not sell and downgrade their status. This decreased supply will lead to price increases. Early adopters (Deadline to stake: Before 20th March 2018) will be rewarded in the new X Series Node system. Features include exclusive participation in VeChain ecosystem project whitelists. (Something I'm excited about since I believe there will be a handful of reverse ICOs from traditional enterprise clients)

Technology

VeChain is planning on adding more than 100 additional full-time developers by the end of 2018.
For those interested in the technology of Blockchain X, I would direct you to the Medium AMAs where the VeChain team have provided detailed answers to common questions. Hardware 1, Hardware 2, Software 1 and Software 2 are worth a read.

Strategic partners

The three strategic partners each play a key role in VeChainThor's expansion. PWC has clients which make up 85% of the Fortune 500. DNV-GL is the preferred provider of those Fortune 500 companies for management systems certification services. PWC and DNV-GL will serve to introduce their enterprise clients to VeChain and increase adoption. BitOcean is positioning itself as a Fiat on-ramp for Crypto in Japan through physical ATMs and online exchanges, with approval by Japan's Financial Services Authority. BitOcean also plans to operate in China when regulations are finalised. BitOcean represents a Fiat/VET pairing that may serve to decouple VET/BTC and lead to independence of VET from the whims of BTC price.

Evidence of adoption to date: Existing clients & Investors

VeChain currently has 180 business opportunities in their pipeline for 2018 (compared to 4 use cases in 2016 and 22 in 2017). They have real uses cases and existing clients that range from medium to large enterprises. Revealed clients include Chinese Government Gui'an New Area project, BMW, Groupe Renault, DIG, Kuehne + Nagel, China Unicom, NRCC - State Tobacco, MLILY, Sunshine culture, Hubei Sanxin Cultural Media, Fanghuwang, YIDA future, Madeforgoods and iTaotaoke. Each of these partnerships deserve a detailed post on their own, they are all available on VeChain's Medium page. Taken together, it becomes clear what type of Ecosystem VeChainThor is trying to build.
Jiangsu Printed Electronics and Xiamen Innov Information Technology are technology partners and I suspect will be mass producing the RFID/NFC chips.
Breyer Capital and Fenbushi capital are the two featured investors on VeChain's website. Jim Breyer generally makes some pretty smart investment decisions. His only other crypto investments are Circle and Ethereum.
Bonus news: This week they are presenting with DNV-GL a cold chain supply chain solution at the Global Food Safety Initiative conference 2018. Zoom in and you'll see VeChain Intelligent Control Display System. DNV-GL have also launched their new digital assurance solution, My Story™. Four top Italian wine producers are using My Story™ under supervision of the Italian wine authorities. Twitter and DNVGL link.

China's potential

China is widely known to be anti-cryptocurrency but extremely pro-blockchain. China's "13th Five year plan 2016-2020" focuses on moving up in the value chain by abandoning old heavy industry and building up bases of modern information-intensive infrastructure, with blockchain and Smart Cities being a key technological focus. VeChain has achieved approval from the Government of the People's Republic of China with Gui'an New Area project, multiple mentions on state owned media (CCTV) and deals with state owned enterprises (China Tobacco). China will not fall behind in the international Blockchain race, they will finalise regulations and adopt Blockchain rapidly in the coming years. VeChain appears to be one of the leaders in the field, with their largest office in Shanghai and existing government connections.

Leader in the field

Last but not least, VeChain is leading the field in a number of areas.
  1. Academic research: VeResearch with Michigan State University #1 for supply chain management and another university to be announced
  2. Transparency: quarterly financial reports, regular social media updates, multiple AMAs, response to cryptocurrency ban, directly addressing FUD in official Telegram channels
  3. Corporate responsibility: cryptocurrency disaster recovery plan
  4. Environmental responsibility: Carbon bank initiative with DNV-GL

Skeptics section

In the interests of balanced discussion, I will update this section with skepticism I find in the comments below.
  1. "No whitepaper"
    • VeChain are working on a Whitepaper as part of their Q1 2018 goals. Information normally found in a Whitepaper has been made available through the development plan. I'm actually not too fussed about not having a whitepaper. For me evidence of enterprise adoption is a more useful indicator of how successful VeChainThor could be.
  2. "No official wallet" "No Mainnet"
    • VeChainThor has been operating as a private blockchain since June 2016. Public VeChainThor Blockchain Launch, VeChain Wallet with VeThor Forge Function will be released in Q2 2018 according to the roadmap.
  3. "VeChain are dumping their VET on the open market"
  4. "Can we talk about the fact that the BMW "partnership" is not really a partnership? VEN is allowed to participate into a startup program hosted by BMW. BMW is not a client. http://www.bmwstartupgarage.com/partner " - u/DutchDolt
    • "BMWstartupgarage" has neither been confirmed or denied by BMW or VeChain, it has been spread by a youtuber called "Crypto Gem"
    • Going to the website linked, BMW refers to successful participants as both partners and clients
    • This is still a developing partnership with details under NDA, however the VeChain/BMW link has been confirmed at the VeChain rebranding event and by Sarah VeChain Country Manager
  5. "Vote manipulation" "Shilling" "Brigading" "You're a paid shiller"
    • In the past VeChain Telegram Moderators wilfully participated in brigading, leading to the ban on the word "VeChain" for 30 days in cryptocurrency
    • It is difficult to differentiate manipulated behaviour and organic behaviour on Reddit, the moderators here do an amazing job getting rid of spam and detecting vote manipulation
    • The Official VeChain Foundation has stepped in to help Reddit moderators prevent VeChain vote manipulation
    • Official Telegram Rules: Brigading & Reddit links: We have a new policy regarding Reddit and 'brigading'. No brigading of any kind will be allowed. If you want to post a Reddit link, do so with the "np." prefix added to its URL, for example "np.reddit.com /CryptoCurrency". No spamming for upvotes, as it hurts both of our communities.
    • This is strictly enforced by Telegram moderators and results in a warning then an insta-ban for repeat offenders
    • https://imgur.com/a/sOva9 is being copy-pasted en masse by detractors as evidence of brigading
    • Image shows Boxminig feeling sorry for WTC PR team and a "np" link to a different thread
    • I wish I got paid to shill VeChain, I made this post to share a fundamentally strong crypto with the community _________________________________________________________________________________________

An interesting perspective supported by CEO Sunny Lu

NTSpike: VeChain Thor Is Positioning to Become THE #1 Enterprise dApp Platform, and Here's Why - A Systems Analyst's Perspective
Disclaimer: My holdings are 80% VEN and remainder in NEO, WTC, TKY, XRB, AMB
submitted by enozym111 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Investigation of (Dis-)Favor 1\3 questioning freedom of will (in Macro-society)

This item began as a simple idea to investigate "social construct" theory, a trendy theme in academia and identity politics. It turned into a staggeringly complex constellation of ideas, with surprises galore.
The idea occurs to me: validate (or not) 'social construction' of beauty. If not, then sense of beauty is innate (source is not one's society, but genetic or other episocial influences).
Natural Tendency towards Beauty in Humans: Evidence from Binocular Rivalry 2016 | plos (technical study)
Reading in Contemporary Aesthetics "Why Beauty Still Cannot Be Measured", by Ossi Naukkarinen, because beauty is a personal determination, and a metaphor of favor, but how is it determined? Example: which of these women looks beautiful to you? note: only descriptor for the AI search is "beautiful woman", AI learns about beauty by sifting mega-data; how effective is it? (achieves given goal?) AI results are socially constructed in the most explicit way possible! Beauty may not be measurable, but it can be selected (parsed) from non-beauty. Measurement is a comparison of some phenomenon to an abstract dimension. Selection is a go, no-go choice.
What is Nudge theory? This item straddles the fence between Macro and Micro societies, paradigmatic Nudges come from Macro sources, but include an option to choose without pressure to conform. Micro sources are always more direct; which side of the fence are you on, friend?. (Greener side, of course.)
What about searching for "good", images? note how often the WORD good is pictured. Good is a language construct that must be interpreted from the individual's perspective.
Ok, now search for "favor" images note that AI mostly interprets favor as a small gift, not as a preference (which is difficult to represent by image)
Well then, search for "preference", images note that the word preference happens to be used by a line of hair care products from L'Oreal, which dominates the returns... commerce rules!
social construct (def, search result)
validate (or not) 'social construction' of beauty
Is Socialism a social construct? (LoL) Socialism Defined (EVERY Country is Socialist!) 2.2k views Sep 29, 2019 Rokn'MrE
To (social) Construct, or Not to (social) Construct, is there a choice? (note most results are about gender)
Parsing gender
Discussion of gender is not my direction of choice in this part 1 investigation. I want to seek how an actor (esp. me) makes a choice, in a quest for freedom of will. Perhaps come back to gender in a future item.
person makes a choice, in a quest for freedom of will (selections available)
Exemplar Hyp (Harry) Frankfurt’s compatibilist theory of free will 2009 5pg.pdf
I notice my choice of article was partly determined, partly free, but parsing out those factors would be too much divergence from the goal here. But Truth (a two side coin) is my story, and I'm stickin' to it.
(previous link, compatibilism):
3 It explains our intuition that human beings, but not lower animals, have free will. Lower animals lack free will because they lack the second-order volitions which are constitutive of free will. (This item is unnecessary and probably not true; how do we know animals have no "second-order volitions"? Having no other language than "body", we can only surmise (guess) what their volitions are. Volitions come before actions, we cannot see them or interpret them in any way. Brain conditions might be interpreted with MRI scanning, but to put a subject in a scanning device is to prevent any other actions. Such measuring ruins the connection between mental state and volition being measured, except we can safely assume that every measurement of animals must default to the volition to escape the measuring device.)
That's the first-order, highlighted deviation from compatibility theory. Clarification of "second-order volition": a path from choice to action has an intermediate "middle-way" tunneling mode, contracting (taking on) a desire to make a choice, prior to making the choice. In order to prove freedom, one must establish the mental preference for an imagined outcome in order to prove that preference did come from within the person and was not forced by other external deciding factors (genetic factors are pre-determined).
incompatibilism Note: the approach is wrong by the universal assumption, IOW that the intersection of determined and free is zero. It's a supremacy position, or superposition principle (LoL), the error is in over-simplification. The Logic Argument (p.5) is not representative of reality, which is more nuanced. Therefore, Frankfurt's thesis is good (denial of incompatibilism), but not due to the case presented (superposition).
Take Frankfurt's case (p.4) of Black vs Jones4 to be analogy for State vs Individual. Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars (other sources exist, search for yourself)
The (myusername) determinism/free-will duality hypothesis (denial of incompatibilism due to non-zero intersection):
Most choices, including the choice of desires, are determined by contingencies of which one is the natural desire of the actor to optimize his/her outcomes ("best wishes"). Is a person always compelled to have best wishes? What is best depends on a person's mental state, which is usually determined by external factors, but those can vary in cogency (impact on behavior). Consider the choice to commit suicide, certainly not a trivial choice. (The Chosen means of execution (puns intended) is somewhat more trivial, but again, partly determined by external conditions.)
Some choices, nearly all trivial, are free because no interfering contingencies are apparent during the choosing interlude. It may happen in hindsight, that a past choice is observed to be a mistake, usually because some contingency was overlooked or unknown during the choosing. This observation should be remembered so as to avoid repeating a future choice like that mistake. Choices always have risks, including the choice to do nothing.
Different day, slightly different approach... parsing choice. 1 important choices that have many deep effects later, for instances a marriage partner, a new job, a new residence; 2 trivial choices which have minor effects, risks or physical involvement, for instances a choice of toothpaste at the market, to like or not a web-link or museum exhibit.
According to (myusername)'s determined/free paradigm, type 1 choices are nearly all determined by pre-existing conditions (not free). Type 2 choice is the arena of freedom. I suppose a person's low risk-aversion parameter could expand the envelope of freedom, but that's a characteristic that develops during maturation, one's history of choices and ensuing responses. Successful responses lead to more freedom, failures to less. So even when freedom exists, it accumulates a history (habits) which become a determinant.
Contracting the Social Construct Disorder (it's contagious) Take 1:
How does an actor (person in question who comes to an internal state, or inner-construct) interact with a community or society? Must it be IRL, or can virtual interaction suffice to construct internal states? And more to my point, must the interaction be two-way (containing feedback), or simply via broadcast medium? (broadcast includes published books, articles, records, radio, TV or Internet A/V shows, etc.)
Interaction with broadcast media can be summarized by: a choice, a degree of attention and focus (time spent on and attention given to item), a like/dislike or more complex reaction to item, having future behavior influenced by item, to continue a stream of behaviors (especially sequential item choices) as consequence of influence of item, to develop a complex of attitudes built upon stream of items (eg. just mentioned 'risk aversion parameter and habit).
Before going on, I notice that broadcast media is like Sunshine, Rain, and Grace. It is made available by participation in a community, and falls without curse or blessing, it's all there for the choosing (or ignoring), depending on the contingencies.
Mind control theory? (because mind is the inner source of volition... behavior, control the mind (easy), hence control the behaviors (difficult otherwise))
Mind control courtesy Tavistock Inst.
Construction of Favor (or any knowledge) upon Familiarity
What is Social Construction? (cntrlZ)
"For instance, trees are only differentiated from other plants by virtue of the fact that we have all learned to see them as "trees."
But we don't all know about trees to an equal degree. I know rather much about trees from my interaction with them: living among them, planting them, sawing them, moving them, burning them, etc., not from reading or talking about them. No doubt, there are many persons all over the world who have very little experience of trees, and cannot 'construct' treeness as well as me. Direct experience is more realistic and developed than social constructs.
Favor and Familiarity are interwoven by choice
I chose to live alone with trees and not alone with sea, or desert (for examples), because it was easier to go with trees. Was the choice free? I could have chosen city or suburb with even more ease than forest, so ease of choice was not the deciding factor, it was my preference of lonely forest over crowded urb that decided me. So maybe it wasn't really about trees, it was about independence or something else like that. When we choose, we may not understand the contingencies, but our decision (choice) may be due to habits or patterns that have developed in the maturity process. Habits are strong determinants, and they develop, according to Ian Plowman, 4 ways.
The cntrlZ article makes the case for 'Strong Social Construction' based on that 'knowing' which is all about language, certainly a social construct.
Within the social construction of language is the game. Outside the social construction is reality, the real world. (a list of social constructs follows)
That makes it clear. Experiences (direct ones) without resort to language are NOT social constructs. That observation makes another distinction clear: gender may be a social construct, as it's a language issue, but sex is not a social construct, it is a direct experience issue that develops in the maturation process: birth, infant, child, puberty, sexy adolescent, sexy adult, old (unsexy) adult, death. Prior to puberty, sex is incipient in its development, but comes to life, (like a flower blooms) after a decade or so. Knowing about sex as a child is by observation from outside (thru the looking glass), after puberty, it's direct experience, and much later, it's a fading memory.
Regarding Looking-glass self theory the notion of socially constructed identity (defining the self by differences/ affinities to others),
... the outcome of "taking the role of the other", the premise for which the self is actualized. Through interaction with others, we begin to develop an identity of our own as well as developing a capacity to empathize with others... Therefore, the concept of self-identity may be considered an example of a social construction.
... makes a spurious expansion of identity formation to include everyone (a unity), or nearly so. According to Reisman's Lonely Crowd, there is a triality of social nature, expounded by parsing people into tradition, inner, and other directed personalities. This theme was a scholar's response to the US trend toward consumerism and conformity to "norms", (local traditions, eg. "keeping up with the Joneses") mid-20th century. The social construct crowd would be Reisman's Other directed personality, which may truly be the majority, in USA certainly. However, the tradition-following and inner-directed personalities are a significant minority. Let's not ignore them (I'm in there.)
What is “Mob Mentality?”
Herd mentality | wkpd
Are All Personality Descriptions Social Constructions? Sep.2019 | psytdy
... that objective reality does not directly reveal itself to us, is true beyond a doubt.
The preceding statement author, JA Johnson, is way off (and his article is full of falseness). Objective reality IS direct experience, no more revealing modality exists. Denial of this obvious fact (just lied about above) is a redefinition of the term (a social construct). Experience is beyond language, thus beyond 'description'. However the following is a true reveal about (((Yews))) (the like of whom Dr. Johnson seems):
It is true that when we describe someone with socially undesirable traits... we are constructing for them a social reputation that might decrease their chance of success in life. This is precisely one of the concerns of (((social constructivists, like Dr. Johnson))), that certain categorizations (eg. a separate race) reduce power and status.
Proof that Truth is not a social construct (relative to culture, like morality absolutely is)... What do you believe in? Cultural Relativism
Conformity is a social construct (should be obvious, it's a social source of choices). What causes conformity? Social interactions, which traditionally occurred (Macro-version) in newspapers, magazines, cinema and radio programs. As culture changed the popular media to radio, TV and then to Internet, and church attendance fell out of vogue, the advertising industry became more powerful in defining social constructs. That's why Internet censorship is so important.
Who are the 'influencers' in society? (They used to be parents, teachers, peers... now it seems to be YouTubers, like PewDiePie. But an intentionally underplayed contingent of influencers is the predominantly Left-Leaning academia, who collectively promote Marxist preferences and political activism toward Socialist positions. Academia is pushing social construction because it provides an intellectual framework that denies the old (social injustice), and says ok to their preferred ideology, Cultural Marxism (new social "just us"; socially constructed ideas can be anything you want, their cogency depends on efficacy of publication).
Micro-Social Constructs are most cogent (due to conformity being human nature), discussed in part 2.
Bottom Line (part 1)
If you like freedom, and are serious about it, you must distance yourself from society, because it tries to reconstruct you according to the norm... conform!
Before you go, think about what is a hermit?, which should not be confused with Hermetic, name derived from Greek god Hermes. 7 Great Hermetic Principles – The Teachings of Thoth (illustrated)... same topic 2016
Investigation of (Dis-)Favor 2\3, Micro-Societies
Social Circles; Mates, Kin, Friends
note on Mates: school-, (prison) in-, marriage-, ship-, etc. note on my link choices, page rank has a strong influence
Social group (aka circle)
Is Conformity Human Nature? Don't blow this list off, if you want to understand social constructs. At least look at first item.
What is Social Proof?
Are Micro-societies any less 'constructing' than Macros? Or do some constructs exist for all realms, macro and micro? I think they are more constructing, because micros carry feedback, whereas macro is all absorption, individuals have negligible effects on society at large. They act in a statistical sense, with a few exceptions.
Concept vs Percept (concepts are stable mental recordings, and physical manifestations of them; percepts are changing sensations and reflexes which depend strongly on the situation, memories of which are variable too)
Favor, Good, and Beauty are words that belong in the same 'conceptual basket' (ward), they are alike, all refer to action 'like', as an affective (and affirmative) perception. Conversely for the word's opposites.
Perceptions are non-language reactions to stimuli, therefore not social constructs. They may be evoked into a social arena via language (or other virtual records), but these are only shadows of the perception, so what is evoked is drawn up from the receiver's own memories of perceptions.
Division of Labor (and role models) are Social Constructs
Sex is the most basic divider of labor, for all societies, especially the most primitive. As societies develop towards more technical, sex falls away from the divider, as natural talent and innate interest gain influence, until the basic operations of reproduction remain, the core division. What about rankings in the division?
natural tendency for dominance?
Are males naturally dominant in nature? | qra
(arguments opposing) Male Dominance (theory) with (bogus) "Explanations", by 2 feminist authors using Marxist ideology 2017 | verso While this blog seems to have obvious (to me) flaws, it does raise interesting ideas and references.
what attributes help males gain social status? Basic: status is competitive. It takes talent and effort to win.
To Raise Male Status (18 Rules) | @rctvmn (not because age 18 is best)
Dominance vs Prestige 2010 | psytdy Note: blatant bias toward Prestige via argument parsing Pride. (author is Jewish, maligns DJ Trump (nationalist), lauds John Lennon (globalist))
modes of thought: socially-controlled vs spontaneous
Major Component of Social-Construction: Public Education 3 Modes of Thought Jan.2019
Kaufman again: How Renaissance People Think 2011 | psytdy Note: We discussed concept vs percept, here Kaufman refers to fellow-Jew Seymour Epstein's dual modish rational vs experiential theory, same idea set.
polymath (short for Renaissance Man)
Favor-Goodness-Beauty paradigm
Favor is not favored in prior art, Truth takes Favor's place in the Transcendental Spectrum: Transcendentals 5pg.pdf
We have already seen the idea in part 1 that Truth is a disputed transcendental in the social-constructionism academic universe. Academics use the "universal fallacy" that their favored item is part of an incompatible pair, which by logic excludes everything not in their favor. They want to ignore the nuances in order to push an ideology toward a supremacy of thinking, just like in a totalitarian state.
Whereas the (myusername) principle of Truth, it has a dual nature, 1 relative to a society (democratic consensus); and 2 absolute to reality (math/science/technology). So 'Favor' is a better term because objective proof (no contest) is not required (except the meaning of objective that says 'objection!', meaning 'contest'). 'Favor' implies bias which is the subjective reaction that matches Goodness and Beauty better than 'Truth'.
Apply Truth-Goodness-Beauty paradigm to social construction
it is unconcerned with ontological issues...
because the aim of constructionists is to justify a collective "truth" of their own construction. A social construct is not absolute, it's anything a society wants it to be ("social proof"). That's a good description of tyranny... The Empowered Female Parasite 2014 (that's a surprising result, here is one not-surprising.)
Social Proof: established by culture media (mind control, a monopoly 2012 (scroll down long graphic), of the Juice 2015), go back to part 1, macrosocial constructs.
Does Appreciation of Beauty have any innate sources? (otherwise it's all a social construct) Neuroscience of Beauty; How does the brain appreciate art? 2011 | sciam (in brain)
Onward (Dis)-Favor Readers...
Investigation of (Dis-)Favor 3\3, House of Not-Friends
Contracting the Social Construct Disorder Take 2
Living outside the 'Normitory" (away from Dreamland (everybody's asleep), to where Nessun Dorma (nobody sleeps))
It so happens that an ethnic group which originated in eastern Mediterranean Middle-East evolved to specialize in intelligence, commerce, morally corrupt enterprises, and crime. Essential to their success was eugenic traditions that applied artificial selection to just those same specialties, which makes this ethnic group a formidable enemy. They have developed a very strong sense of in-groupness, and a vested interest in social construct studies. A unified collective is a more effective competitor than an inchoate population of diverse individuals.
This group has as ethnic traits: global dispersion (aka Diaspora), preference for urban environments (aka Cosmopolitan, or Globalist), covert inter-group rivalry (aka InfoWar), and deception (aka MOSSAD). This cosmopolitan group must operate covertly and deceptively, because those are effective tactics, and they are a small minority (2% of USA), therefore weak in the democratic sense.
Immoral Social Constructs enforced by 5th column subversives
wethefifth (political audio series)
serendipity: freethink
Another construct search, without gender reference
Is morality a social construct? If so, how can concepts such as 'good' exist? (note especially the links in top comment, to reddit posts)
"Good" can be understood as a variation of "Favor" as a direct experience (perception) of "like", rather than some idealized notion of an obvious social construct such as "greater good" (a theoretical derivation by interventionist actors-with-agendas trying to impose their own preferences upon others, IOW ideology hegemony pushers, for instance viz da wiz)
Cultural hegemony is the Chosen's mitzvah, that we all must go to Emerald City, land of Oz, where YHWH (impostor) rules.
Cultural hegemony
Concepts of Ideology, Hegemony, and Organic Intellectuals in Gramsci’s Marxism 1982
There is no universal morality. Morality is much like Beauty, in the mind of beholder (actor who holds to a specific moral code). Morality is a social construct, and varies between societies. (I think a fair definition of morality is a code of ethics which is community-specific.) For a society to sustain, it needs to be isolate from conflicting societies. If different societies, with different moralities must coexist, the natural tendency for actors in the same niche toward dominance will destroy or remake the subordinate societies, which reduces the conflicts.
Status Hierarchies: Do We Need Them? blog 2012 | psytd
a need for 'virtue signaling'? It's natural, and likely unavoidable, evidence pride displays.
Status Assignments: by birth (heredity) or merit (talent)?
Let's assume your morality values social effectiveness. The best path to that is to have talented persons dominant (meritocracy). Next we happen to know that talent is hereditary, but not perfectly so. Therefore birth (kinship, aka kingship) is only an indicator of talent, which is infrequent among low status groups, much higher among high status kinship groups. Thus we must conclude that awarding status by pedigree and family privilege is not the best way to effectiveness, but it often does work. What works best then, must be? a competitive system of merit-proving, with special attention to high-status families. (Helps if the natural tendency for snobbish repression is circumvented, for examples Han-style Civil Service Exams, and the Roman military promotion avenue, which occasionally led to top gun.)
Sustainable Competitive Advantages (aka moats): Network Effects 2019 | sEknα
Our Brain's Negative Bias 2003 | psytdA
Fear: it's the greatest (motivator) 2009 Owen Benjamin made a video about Fear over TIME 16 min.
Dominance Hierarchy employs FEAR to dominate
Dominance hierarchy | wkpd Social dominance theory | wkpd
scaring children is not ok, Sydney Watson blog 11 min
tools for social mobility and dominance (list)
9 Important Factors That Influence Social Mobility Social dominance orientation | wkpd SDO should theoretically be highly important to Jews, as their ethos tends strongly to emulate it among themselves and denigrate it towards outgroups (Goyim). Thus we should expect to see this field of study monopolized by Jewish scholars. Studying the Gentile: Fanciful Pseudoscience in the Service of Pathologizing the Covington Boys | OO
Contracting the Social Construct Disorder Take 3
Different day from Take 2. Re-consider interactions with a community or society: traditionally occurred locally, on Sunday meetings at church, parties, having a beer after work, town hall or children's group meetings, (eg. PTA, scouts) etc.
Re-consider "contracting". Original idea was meant to acquire, like a disease, not by design (choice), but determined by contingency (unlucky chance). Today, "contracting" means getting smaller, shrinking, like a cooling branding iron, or melting ice. Iron has several crystalline phases, the cooler, the more compact (more atomic order). Ice is contrary to most materials, as its crystalline structure is larger than its liquid phase, so as it melts (entropy always increases, going to less ordered) its atoms become more fluid. In both cases, the natural mode of change is toward ambient temperature. This trend (recursion to the mean) is maybe the most unbroken law of all physics.
Re-considering "Disorder"; original idea was meant as a mental disease, like ADHD (Attention Deficit Hyperactive Disorder), IOW anomalous condition, out-of-order, (order being assumed normal) in the human behavior dimension. Today it means individuals out-of-line, like discontinuities in a crystal. (Discontinuities are what make metal harder.)
When all the atoms of a metal are aligned (continuous), the state is called "annealed". This is the softest condition. When the metal has been "work hardened" by hammering, or forging, it acquires discontinuities (crystalline order becomes mucked up). This is a harder state. Hardness is measured by forcing a small ball into a test material and measuring the resulting depression (dent). Discontinuities resist dents and every other kind of deforming force (decreased plasticity (weakness) means increased elasticity and maximum yield (resilience, see Young's Modulus, Indentation hardness, Impact Toughness and Moh's Hardness)).
Now make analogy of metal with society. Non-conformist individuals (like followers of Marginotions) make society (if he-he-heeded) more resistant to outside forces (like George Soros, or seekers of Tikkun Olam) trying to make a dent in the established order (tradition, Protestant Ethic).
Contracting the Social Construct Disorder Take 4
Different day Re-consider "contracting" again. Today, it means make-a-deal, as in commercial contract. This kind of contract is in flux nowadays, as the advent of bitcoin has introduced a mathematical means of authorizing legal agreements (aka contracts) in a distributed ledger that makes such agreements social in a very direct sense. The social part of "social construct" is present in a world wide network of participating computer operators, while the construct part is present in a software package (app) that is now called "smart", meaning has built-in security and ongoing timely operations, like confirmation checking. In this contract-paradigm, the "disorder" part is due to it being outside of previous power-holding elites who are chagrined by the prospect of losing some of their powers to the Internetwork, which is out of their control. IOW disorder for elites, and made-to-order for independents. (note on that quote)
Social Contract per britannica (briefly) per wkpd
explicit vs implicit contracts Differences Between Implicit & Explicit Agreements (law) 2017 more specific, social contracts Social Contract Theory UT (includes videos, glossary)
to be continued: fairness is a social construct (contrast with deterministic fate)
study notes (all 3 parts, this series)
Gentrification, Displacement and the Role of Public Investment: A Literature Review 2015 pdf
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Owen+Benjamin+made+video+about+Fear&atb=v81-4__&ia=videos
why is 'social construct' a popular theme?
https://www.success.com/8-daily-habits-to-build-your-mental-strength/
Pareto principle implications for marital harmony, a very brief summary of research by J Cacioppo)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_culture
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_society
https://thejewishwars.blogspot.com/2019/03/aipac-traitor-jews-having-successfully.html
https://theevilofzionismexposedbyjews.weebly.com/14-what-zionist-and-anti-zionist-jews-have-said-about-education.html
submitted by acloudrift to AlternativeHypothesis [link] [comments]

25 Tools and Resources for Crypto Investors: Guide to how to create a winning strategy

Lots of people have PM'd me asking me the same questions on where to find information and how to put together their portfolio so I decided to put a guide for crypto investors, especially those who have only been in a few months and are still confused.
This is going to be Part 1 and will deal with research resources, risk and returns. In Part 2 I'll post a systematic approach to valuation and picking individual assets with derived price targets.

Getting started: Tools and resources

You don't have to be a programmer or techie to invest in crypto, but you should first learn the basics of how it functions. I find that this video by 3Blue1Brown is the best introduction to what a blockchain actually is and how it functions, because it explains it clearly and simply with visuals while not dumbing it down too much. If you want a more ELI5 version with cute cartoons, then Upfolio has a nice beginner's intro to the blockchain concept and quick descriptions of top 100 cryptocurrencies. I also recommend simply going to Wikipedia and reading the blockchain and cryptocurrency page and clicking onto a few links in, read about POS vs POW...etc. Later on you'll need this information to understand why a specific use case may or may not benefit from a blockchain structure. Here is a quick summary of the common terms you should know.
Next you should arm yourself with some informational resources. I compiled a convenient list of useful tools and sites that I've used and find to be worthy of bookmarking:
Market information
Analysis tools
Portfolio Tracking
Youtube
I generally don't follow much on Youtube because it's dominated by idiocy like Trevon James and CryptoNick, but there are some that I think are worthy of following:

Constructing a Investment Strategy

I can't stress enough how important it is to construct an actual investment strategy. Organize what your goals are, what your risk tolerance is and how you plan to construct a portfolio to achieve those goals rather than just chasing the flavor of the week.
Why? Because it will force you to slow down and make decisions based on rational thinking rather than emotion, and will also inevitably lead you to think long term.

Setting ROI targets

Bluntly put, a lot of young investors who are in crypto have really unrealistic expectations about returns and risk.
A lot of them have never invested in any other type of financial asset, and hence many seem to consider a 10% ROI in a month to be unexciting, even though that is roughly what they should be aiming for.
I see a ton of people now on this sub and on other sites making their decisions with the expectation to double their money every month. This has lead a worrying amount of newbies putting in way too much money way too quickly into anything on the front page of CoinMarketCap with a low dollar value per coin hoping that crypto get them out of their debt or a life of drudgery in a cubicle. And all in the next year or two!
But its important to temper your hype about returns and realize why we had this exponential growth in the last year. Its not because we are seeing any mass increase in adoption, if anything adoption among eCommerce sites is decreasing. The only reason we saw so much upward price action is because of fiat monetary base expansion from people FOMO-ing in due to media coverage of previous price action. People are hoping to ride the bubble and sell to a greater fool in a few months, it is classic Greater Fool Theory. That's it. We passed the $1,000 psychological marker again for Bitcoin which we hadn't seen since right before the Mt.Gox disaster, and it just snowballed the positivity as headline after headline came out about the price growth. However those unexciting returns of 10% a month are not only the norm, but much more healthy for an alternative investment class. Here are the annual returns for Bitcoin for the last few years:
Year BTC Return
2017 1,300%
2016 120%
2015 35%
2014 -60%
2013 5300%
2012 150 %
Keep in mind that a 10% monthly increase when compounded equals a 313% annual return, or over 3x your money. That may not sound exciting to those who entered recently and saw their money go 20x in a month on something like Tron before it crashed back down, but that 3X annual return is better than Bitcoin's return every year except the year right before the last market meltdown and 2017. I have been saying for a while now that we are due for a major correction and every investor now should be planning for that possibility through proper allocation and setting return expectations that are reasonable.

Risk Management

Quanitifying risk in crypto is surprisingly difficult because the historical returns aren't normally distributed, meaning that tools like Sharpe Ratio and other risk metrics can't really be used as intended. Instead you'll have to think of your own risk tolerance and qualitatively evaluate how risky each crypto is based on the team, the use case prospects, the amount of competition and the general market risk.
You can think of each crypto having a risk factor that is the summation of the general crypto market risk (Rm) as ultimately everything is tied to how Bitcoin does, but also its own inherent risk specific to its own goals (Ri).
Rt = Rm +Ri
The market risk is something you cannot avoid, if some China FUD comes out about regulations on Bitcoin then your investment in solid altcoin picks will go down too along with Bitcoin. This (Rm) return is essentially what risk you undertake to have a market ROI of 385% I talked about above. What you can minimize though is the Ri, the aset specific risks with the team, the likelihood they will actually deliver, the likelihood that their solution will be adopted. Unfortunately there is no one way to do this, you simply have to take the time to research and form your own opinion on how risky it really is before allocating a certain percentage to it. Consider the individual risk of each crypto and start looking for red flags:
  • guaranteed promises of large returns (protip: that's a Ponzi)
  • float allocations that give way too much to the founder
  • vague whitepapers
  • vague timelines
  • no clear use case
  • Github with no useful code and sparse activity
  • a team that is difficult to find information on or even worse anonymous
While all cryptocurrencies are a risky investments but generally you can break down cryptos into "low" risk core, medium risk speculative and high risk speculative
  • Low Risk Core - This is the exchange pairing cryptos and those that are well established. These are almost sure to be around in 5 years, and will recover after any bear market. Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum are in this class of risk, and I would also argue Monero.
  • Medium Risk Speculative - These would be cryptos which generally have at least some product and are reasonably established, but higher risk than Core. Things like ZCash, Ripple, NEO..etc.
  • High Risk Speculative - This is anything created within the last few months, low caps, shillcoins, ICOs...etc. Most cryptos are in this category, most of them will be essentially worthless in 5 years.
How much risk should you take on? That depends on your own life situation but also it should be proportional to how much expertise you have in both financial analysis and technology. If you're a newbie who doesn't understand the tech and has no idea how to value assets, your risk tolerance should be lower than a programmer who understand the tech or a financial analyst who is experienced in valuation metrics.
Right now the trio of BTC-ETH-LTC account for 55% of the market cap, so between 50-70% of your portfolio in low Risk Core for newbies is a great starting point. Then you can go down to 25-30% as you gain confidence and experience. But always try to keep about 1/3rd in safe core positions. Don't go all in on speculative picks.
Core principles to minimize risk
  • Have the majority of your holdings in things you feel good holding for at least 2 years. Don't use the majority of your investment for day trading or short term investing.
  • Consider using dollar cost averaging to enter a position. This generally means investing a X amount over several periods, instead of at once. You can also use downward biased dollar cost averaging to mitigate against downward risk. For example instead of investing $1000 at once in a position at market price, you can buy $500 at the market price today then set several limit orders at slightly lower intervals (for example $250 at 5% lower than market price, $250 at 10% lower than market price). This way your average cost of acquisition will be lower if the crypto happens to decline over the short term.
  • Never chase a pump. Its simply too risky as its such an inefficient and unregulated market. If you continue to do it, most of your money losing decisions will be because you emotionally FOMO-ed into gambling on a symbol.
  • Invest what you can afford to lose. Don't have more than 5-10% of your net worth in crypto.
  • Consider what level of loss you can't accept in a position with a high risk factor, and use stop-limit orders to hedge against sudden crashes. Set you stop price at about 5-10% above your lowest limit. Stop-limit orders aren't perfect but they're better than having no hedging strategy for a risky microcap in case of some meltdown. Only you can determine what bags you are unwilling to hold.
  • Diversify across sectors and rebalance your allocations periodically. Keep about 1/3rd in low risk core holdings.
  • Have some fiat in reserve at a FDIC-insured exchange (ex. Gemini), and be ready to add to your winning positions on a pullback.
  • Remember you didn't actually make any money until you take some profits, so take do some profits when everyone else is at peak FOMO-ing bubble mode. You will also sleep much more comfortably once you take out the equivalent of your principal.

Portfolio Allocation

Along with thinking about your portfolio in terms of risk categories described above, I really find it helpful to think about the segments you are in. OnChainFX has some segment categorization to think about:
  • Currency
  • General Purpose Platform
  • Advertising
  • Crowdfunding Platform
  • Lending Platform
  • Privacy
  • Distributed Computing/Storage
  • Prediction Markets
  • IOT (Internet of Things)
  • Asset Management
  • Content Creation
  • Exchange Platform
I generally like to simplify these down to these 7 segments:
  • Core holdings - essentially the Low Risk Core segment
  • Platform segment
  • Privacy segment
  • Finance/Bank settlement segment
  • Enterprise Blockchain solutions segment
  • Promising/Innovative Tech segment
This is merely what I use, but I'm sure you can think of your own. The key point I have is to try to invest your medium and high risk picks in a segment you understand well, and in which you can relatively accurately judge risk. If you don't understand anything about how banking works or SWIFT or international settlement layers, don't invest in Stellar. If you have no idea how a supply chain functions, avoid investing in VeChain (even if it's being shilled to death on Reddit at the moment just like XRB was last month). Buffet calls this "circle of competence", he invests in sectors he understands and avoids those he doesn't like tech. I think doing the same thing in crypto is a wise move.
What's interesting is that often we see like-coin movement, for example when a coin from one segment pumps we will frequently see another similar coin in the same segment go up (think Stellar following after Ripple).
Consider the historic correlations between your holdings. Generally when Bitcoin pumps, altcoins dump but at what rate depends on the coin. When Bitcoin goes sideways we tend to see pumping in altcoins, while when Bitcoin goes down, everything goes down.
You should set price targets for each of your holdings, which is a whole separate discussion I'll go in Part 2 of the guide.

Summing it up

This was meant to get you think about what return targets you should set for your portfolio and how much risk you are willing to take and what strategies you can follow to mitigate that risk.
Returns around 385% (average crypto market CAGR over the last 3 years) would be a good target to aim for while remaining realistic, you can tweak it a bit based on your own risk tolerance. What category of risk your individual crypto picks should be will be determined by how much more greed you have for above average market return. A portfolio of 50% core holdings, 30% medium risk in a sector you understand well and 20% in high risk speculative is probably what the average portfolio should look like, with newbies going more towards 70% core and only 5% high risk speculative.
Just by thinking about these things you'll likely do better than most crypto investors, because most don't think about this stuff, to their own detriment.
submitted by arsonbunny to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Virgil Griffith - YouTube TruthSurge - YouTube THE GRID VR  Virtual Reality News - Borderlands 2, Prey VR, Epic Games Store, Contractors, 4k Odin The Truth about GamerGate - How reliable is Zoe Quinn ? How To Waste Your Life & Never Be Happy (A Short Story ...

6) Circle. Circle is a Bitcoin website that offers its services in the US. Customers can buy bitcoin with a PayPal, bank account, credit card, or debit card. 7) BTC-e. Based in Bulgaria, BTC-e allows users to trade Bitcoins and Litecoins for Dollars, Euros, and Rubbles. 8) Bitcoin Source He spends a great deal of time on Reddit and other forums spreading fear about the dangers of big blocks, and he has been caught pretending to be multiple accounts at once having very long, technical discussions on Reddit intended to overwhelm newcomers with what looks like intellectual criticisms of bitcoin, but are actually just Maxwell himself creating huge backlogs that can be referenced ... Original Bitcoin Paper Bitcoin.org Wikipedia (Bitcoin) TryBtc WeUseCoins More... Bitcoin Wallets . Blockchain.info . Electrum Bitcoin-qt . Mycelium Trezor More... Bitcoin News. Coindesk BitcoinMagazine CryptoCoinsNews CoinReport NewsBTC More... Graphs / Analysis. Bitcoin Wisdom Bitcoin Average Bitcoin Charts Bitcoinity (Markets) Bitcoinity (Data) More... Exchanges. Bitstamp Bitfinex Kraken ... what is bitcoin anyway if you wanna have a history heres what Wikipedia says deepdotweb.com bitcointalk.com torproject.com webmd.com Britannica.org 4chan.org 420chan.org reddit.com reddit the front page of the internet because reddit is actually totally crap unless you like standing in a circle and jerking dudes off /r/bitcoin Circle is the best platform to run an internet business using new standards for money powered by USD Coin (USDC) — the fastest growing regulated stablecoin. for Businesses. Grow your business. Run your business on USDC for a more global, scalable, and efficient alternative to traditional banking rails with a Circle Business Account. Learn More . Already have an account? Sign in developers ...

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Virgil Griffith - YouTube

I would add (21/1/18) that while overall GamerGate is about much more than Zoe Quinn, I chose to focus on Quinn because of more recent events with Tim Soret, and other abuses in Quinn's circle ... New Pursuit of Wonder book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08D4VSD88 A short animated story about a man's search for happiness. On his journey, he looks everywhe... I started programming 7 years ago because I wanted to be an entrepreneur. It took a lot of failures to get to where I am now with a startup and a couple of s... Get your exotic shirts while they last! https://www.bunkerbranding.com/products/exotic Watch me vlog. http://www.youtube.com/offtheranch IF you love animals ... Greetings, welcome and a little info. First of all, huge thanks to all the people who subscribed and complimented me on the singing and guitar vids. A LITTLE...

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